A recent Politrack Africa survey has revealed that President William Ruto is leading in national presidential preference with 45.1%. The survey, conducted between September 15 and 25, covered 20,419 respondents across all 47 counties and was weighted against a registered-voter base of 22.1 million people. According to Emmanuel Kutosi, Data Reporting Officer at Politrack Africa, the results indicate a clear but contested picture ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Edwin Sifuna emerged as the closest rival to President Ruto, securing 19.6% support. Other candidates trailed behind, with Kalonzo Musyoka at 10.3%, Fred Matiang'i at 7.2%, and Rigathi Gachagua at 6.0%. The survey also found that 8.4% of respondents remained undecided on their presidential preference. The results suggest that the 2027 presidential race is shaping up to be a competitive contest.
At the party level, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) led with 32.0% support, followed by the Democratic Coalition Party (DCP) at 11.7%, and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 10.6%. Jubilee recorded 6.9%, Wiper 5.6%, Kenya Kwanza 3.5%, and Azimio 3.2%. The survey noted that 9.1% of respondents declined to name a party, 7.3% said they identified with none, and a further 2.3% were unsure.
The poll found that Kenyans are almost evenly split on whether the country is headed in the right direction. Some 45.2% of respondents said Kenya is moving in the right direction, compared to 44.6% who said it is heading the wrong way. A further 10.2% were unsure. The survey highlights the divisions within the country regarding the current administration's performance.
On government achievements, the survey found that Housing and Roads each garnered 16.3% recognition, with Health services, SHIF, and SHA cited by 13.0%, and Agriculture by 10.0%. However, the fight against corruption drew the sharpest criticism, with 19.2% of respondents flagging it as an area of failure. Management of health services, SHIF, and SHA attracted 18.4%, while concerns over the economy and cost of living registered at 12.0%.
The survey also noted that UDA retains firm pluralities in the Rift Valley and parts of the Mount Kenya region, while opposition strongholds remain competitive. The data represents a snapshot of the political mood recorded during the September fieldwork period and does not constitute an election forecast or result.
The poll results are consistent with previous surveys, including one by Mizani Africa, which showed William Ruto leading in the 2027 presidential race. The Kalonzo-Sifuna pairing drew 40.8% as respondents' preferred opposition ticket. However, the poll did not disclose its sample size, methodology, or margin of error.
Key points
- President William Ruto leads in national presidential preference with 45.1%.
- UDA is the leading political party with 32.0% support.
- Kenyans are almost evenly split on whether the country is headed in the right direction.
