Tunisian economist Anis Wahabi has released a prospective study analyzing the country's economic challenges and presenting three possible scenarios for 2036. The study, titled "À quoi ressemblera l’économie tunisienne en 2036 ?", highlights the weaknesses accumulated by the Tunisian economy and proposes potential solutions. According to Wahabi, the country's economic model, based on competitiveness through costs, subcontracting, and limited added-value activities, has not changed significantly despite political transformations.
The study cites several concerning statistics, including a decline in investment from 26% of GDP in 2012 to 11.2% in 2024. The public debt has also increased, reaching 81-84% of GDP in 2024-2025, up from 45% in 2013-2014. Unemployment remains high, ranging from 15.2% to 16.4%, while the per capita income has decreased from $4,310 in 2014 to $3,840 in 2023. These numbers indicate a need for significant reforms to address the country's economic challenges.
One of the major issues facing Tunisia is the brain drain, with 45,000 to 46,000 engineers leaving the country over the past decade. This emigration reduces the country's human capital, which is essential for economic growth and development. Wahabi emphasizes that the country's economic model needs to be transformed to address these challenges and ensure sustainable growth.
The study presents three possible scenarios for Tunisia's economy by 2036. The first scenario, described as the "status quo", assumes a limited growth rate of 1-1.8% between 2026 and 2036, with investment remaining low at 10-13% of GDP. This scenario would lead to a significant increase in public debt, reaching 110-130% of GDP, and high youth unemployment above 40%. This would result in a gradual decline rather than a sudden collapse.
The second scenario, described as a "rupture structurelle", assumes a significant increase in investment to 22-25% of GDP, a growth rate of 4.5-6%, and a reduction in public debt to below 70% of GDP. This scenario would require significant reforms, including budgetary consolidation, restructuring of public enterprises, and industrial and digital upgrading. However, Wahabi considers this scenario less likely.
The third scenario, described as a "bifurcation partielle", assumes a growth rate of 2.5-3.5%, investment of 15-18% of GDP, and a public debt remaining high at 85-100% of GDP. This scenario would involve a transition to renewable energy, digitalization, and leveraging the diaspora to drive growth, without fundamentally transforming the economic model. Wahabi considers this scenario the most likely.
The study concludes that without a compromise to support the short-term costs of reforms, Tunisia's economy in 2036 may be more environmentally friendly and connected, but still structurally similar to that of 2025. The report emphasizes the need for policymakers to take bold steps to address the country's economic challenges and ensure sustainable growth.
Key points
- - The Tunisian economy faces significant challenges, including low investment, high public debt, and high unemployment. - Economist Anis Wahabi presents three possible scenarios for 2036, ranging from a gradual decline to a transformative growth. - The most likely scenario assumes a growth rate of 2.5-3.5%, investment of 15-18% of GDP, and a public debt remaining high at 85-100% of GDP.
