Tunisia's trade deficit has accumulated to 17.8538 billion dinars for the first eight months of 2026, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS). This represents a significant increase from 14.639 billion dinars recorded during the same period in 2025. The deficit has widened due to a 11.6% rise in imports, which reached 62.5254 billion dinars, outpacing the 8% growth in exports to 44.6716 billion dinars.
The recent trend has sparked concerns that the trade deficit may exceed the 2022 record of 25.2314 billion dinars. To surpass this record, Tunisia would need to accumulate an additional 7.3776 billion dinars in deficit from September to December, averaging 1.8444 billion dinars per month. The current monthly deficit average from January to August stands at 2.232 billion dinars, making the 2022 record a possibility if the trend continues.
A breakdown of the monthly trade deficits reveals that May and August were particularly significant, with deficits of nearly 2.89 billion dinars and 2.90 billion dinars, respectively. The energy sector has been a major contributor to the widening deficit, with the energy deficit reaching 8.9302 billion dinars as of August, accounting for approximately 50% of the total trade deficit.
The country's trade relationships with certain countries have also been a factor in the widening deficit. The INS reports that Tunisia has significant deficits with China, Algeria, and Turkey, with deficits of 7.78 billion dinars, 3.32 billion dinars, and 2.37 billion dinars, respectively. Conversely, Tunisia maintains trade surpluses with France, Germany, and Libya.
Expert Mohamed Salah Souilem has warned that if the current trend continues, the trade deficit could reach 26 billion dinars in 2026. However, this projection is based on current trends and may not necessarily materialize. The INS has not issued an official forecast, and several scenarios could play out between now and the end of the year.
Three possible scenarios have been outlined, including a simple annualization of the current trend, which would put the deficit at 26.78 billion dinars. Another scenario, based on Souilem's estimate, would require a slightly lower monthly deficit of 2.037 billion dinars from September to December to reach a total deficit of 26 billion dinars.
The implications of the widening trade deficit are far-reaching, with Souilem estimating that the investment rate has fallen to around 15% and recommending a target of at least 25%. He also estimates that public debt could reach 85% of GDP, although the official budget for 2026 puts this figure at 83.4% of GDP.
Key points
- 17.8538 billion dinars - Tunisia's trade deficit as of August 2026
- 25.2314 billion dinars - Tunisia's record trade deficit in 2022
- 7.3776 billion dinars - additional deficit required to surpass 2022 record
