The National Meteorological Institute of Tunisia has released its seasonal forecast for October, November, and December 2026, indicating that temperatures will exceed the country's reference rates across all regions. This period typically marks a transitional phase towards autumn and winter, characterized by a gradual decrease in temperatures and an increase in rainfall, particularly in the north and central-east regions.
According to the reference rates for the period 1991-2020, temperatures during October, November, and December usually range from 12 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 16 and 19 degrees Celsius in the south. The lowest temperatures are typically recorded at the Tala station. The institute's forecast suggests that temperatures will be higher than these averages.
The National Meteorological Institute also provided insights into rainfall patterns during this period. While the seasonal forecast models do not indicate a clear and dominant trend across the country, they suggest the possibility of recording slightly higher-than-average rainfall in some areas. The reference rates for 1991-2020 indicate that rainfall during this period typically ranges from 122 to 443 millimeters in the north and coastal regions.
Breaking down the forecast by month, October temperatures usually range from 17 to 23 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during this month typically ranges from 38 to 84 millimeters in the north, with the highest amounts recorded at the Tabarka station. In contrast, November temperatures range from 11 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 15 and 19 degrees Celsius in the south.
The forecast also indicates that December temperatures will range from 7 to 14 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 11 and 15 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during this month is typically more abundant in the far north, exceeding 100 millimeters and reaching 161 millimeters at the Tabarka station. In comparison, rainfall in the central region usually ranges from 14 to 47 millimeters, and is often less than 32 millimeters in the south.
The National Meteorological Institute's seasonal forecast provides essential information for various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure planning. By understanding the expected temperature and rainfall patterns, stakeholders can make informed decisions to mitigate potential impacts and capitalize on opportunities.
The institute's forecast is based on historical climate trends and statistical models. While the forecast provides a general indication of expected weather patterns, it is essential to note that actual conditions may vary. The National Meteorological Institute will continue to monitor weather patterns and provide updates as necessary.
Key points
- Tunisia is expected to experience higher-than-average temperatures during October, November, and December 2026.
- Rainfall patterns during this period are expected to be slightly higher than average in some areas.
- The National Meteorological Institute's forecast provides essential information for various sectors, including agriculture and water resources.
