Tunisia's state budget has recorded a significant increase in subsidy expenditures, rising by 12% to 3486 million dinars in the first half of 2026. This surge is primarily attributed to the rise in global oil prices, which averaged 92 dollars per barrel as of June 2026. The subsidy on fuel alone amounted to 2427 million dinars, representing a 48.6% execution rate of the projected budget.
The overall budget execution rate for subsidy expenditures stood at 35.7% of the forecasted amount in the 2026 finance law. The increase in subsidy expenditures outpaced investment spending, which totaled 762 million dinars. This development has implications for Tunisia's economic management, particularly in balancing social welfare with fiscal prudence.
The Tunisian government's budget for 2026 anticipates a 3.3% economic growth, driven by recoveries in agriculture, services, and tourism. The projections are based on an average Brent oil price of 63.3 dollars per barrel and stability in the Tunisian dinar against major currencies. However, the rising subsidy bill may pose challenges to achieving these economic targets.
Total budget expenditures paid out during the first half of 2026 were approximately 24917 million dinars, marking an 8.9% increase from the same period in 2025. A significant portion of these expenditures, 12184 million dinars, was allocated to salaries and wages, reflecting a 4.9% increase from the previous year. This rise is largely due to the implementation of salary increases in the public sector.
The government's efforts to enhance social welfare were evident in the 24.1% increase in social transfer expenditures, which reached 2221 billion dinars. These transfers aim to improve income redistribution, combat poverty, and support national solidarity and social housing programs. The execution rate for these expenditures was 47.6% of the 2026 finance law projections.
Development expenditures, which are critical for long-term economic growth, reached 2533 billion dinars. However, the execution rate for these expenditures was relatively low, at 21.2%, due to the nature of development projects, which often see more significant disbursements in the second half of the year.
The Tunisian Ministry of Finance has emphasized its commitment to accelerating public project implementation, addressing issues such as land acquisition, technical challenges, and financing. The goal is to enhance the effectiveness of public investment, boost economic growth, and improve basic infrastructure and services.
Key points
- Tunisia's subsidy expenditures rose by 12% to 3486 million dinars in the first half of 2026.
- The country's budget projections for 2026 anticipate a 3.3% economic growth.
- Development expenditures reached 2533 billion dinars, with an execution rate of 21.2%.
