The National Meteorological Institute of Tunisia has released its seasonal forecast, indicating that temperatures will exceed reference levels across the country during October, November, and December 2026. This period typically marks a transitional phase towards autumn and winter, characterized by a gradual decrease in temperatures and an increase in rainfall, particularly in the north and central-east regions.
According to the institute's data, based on the 1991-2020 reference period, temperatures during this time usually range from 12 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 16 and 19 degrees Celsius in the south. The lowest temperatures are typically recorded at the Tala station. The institute's forecast suggests that temperatures will be higher than these averages.
The National Meteorological Institute also provided insights into rainfall patterns for the last quarter of 2026. While the forecast models do not indicate a clear or dominant trend across the country, they suggest the possibility of slightly higher-than-average rainfall in certain areas. Historically, rainfall during this period ranges from 122 to 443 millimeters in the north and coastal regions, 55 to 102 millimeters in the central-west, and 30 to 97 millimeters in the south.
Focusing on individual months, October temperatures typically range from 17 to 23 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and 22 to 24 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during October usually varies between 38 and 84 millimeters in the north, with the highest recorded at 116 millimeters at the Tabarka station. In contrast, the central and southern regions experience less rainfall, not exceeding 55 millimeters.
November temperatures range from 11 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and 15 to 19 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall is more abundant in the north, ranging from 39 to 96 millimeters, and reaching 160 millimeters in Tabarka. In the central region, rainfall varies between 21 and 41 millimeters, while the south typically sees less than 34 millimeters.
December temperatures range from 7 to 14 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and 11 to 15 degrees Celsius in the south. The northernmost parts of the country experience the most substantial rainfall, exceeding 100 millimeters and reaching 161 millimeters in Tabarka. In contrast, the central region sees rainfall between 14 and 47 millimeters, while the south typically experiences less than 32 millimeters.
The National Meteorological Institute's forecast indicates that Tunisia can expect a warmer and potentially wetter last quarter of 2026. The institute's predictions are based on historical climate data and modeling. Residents and authorities can prepare for the anticipated weather conditions.
Key points
- Tunisia's National Meteorological Institute forecasts higher temperatures for October, November, and December 2026.
- The institute predicts the possibility of slightly higher-than-average rainfall in certain areas.
- The forecast is based on historical climate data and modeling.
