Tunisia's National Meteorological Institute has released its seasonal forecast for October, November, and December 2026, predicting that temperatures will exceed average levels across the country. According to the institute, this period typically marks a transitional phase towards autumn and winter, characterized by a gradual decrease in temperatures and an increase in rainfall, particularly in the north and central-east regions.
The institute's forecast indicates that temperatures during this period will range from 12 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 16 and 19 degrees Celsius in the south. These temperatures are expected to be higher than the reference averages for the period between 1991 and 2020. The lowest temperatures are usually recorded at the Tala station.
In terms of rainfall, the institute's models do not show a clear or dominant trend across the country for the October-December period. However, they suggest that some areas may experience higher-than-average rainfall. According to reference averages for 1991-2020, rainfall during this period typically ranges from 122 to 443 millimeters in the north and coastal regions, and between 55 and 102 millimeters in the central-west region.
The National Meteorological Institute's forecast also provides specific temperature and rainfall ranges for each month. For October, temperatures are expected to range from 17 to 23 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during this month usually ranges from 38 to 84 millimeters in the north, with the highest levels recorded at the Tabarka station.
In November, temperatures are forecast to range from 11 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 15 and 19 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall is typically more abundant in the north, ranging from 39 to 96 millimeters, and reaching up to 160 millimeters in Tabarka. In contrast, the central and southern regions usually experience less rainfall, with totals not exceeding 41 and 34 millimeters, respectively.
For December, temperatures are expected to range from 7 to 14 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 11 and 15 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during this month is typically more significant in the far north, exceeding 100 millimeters and reaching 161 millimeters in Tabarka. In contrast, rainfall in the central region usually ranges from 14 to 47 millimeters, and is often less than 32 millimeters in the south.
The National Meteorological Institute's seasonal forecast provides essential information for various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure planning. By understanding the expected temperature and rainfall patterns, authorities and stakeholders can make informed decisions to mitigate potential impacts and capitalize on opportunities.
Key points
- Tunisia's National Meteorological Institute forecasts higher temperatures for October-December 2026.
- The institute predicts potential increased rainfall in some areas, particularly in the north and central-east regions.
- The forecast provides essential information for various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure planning.
