The Tunisian National Meteorological Institute (INM) has released its seasonal forecast for autumn 2026, predicting that temperatures will be higher than the 1991-2020 climate normals across the country. According to the INM, the average seasonal temperatures for October, November, and December 2026 are expected to exceed the normal levels. This forecast was published on September 30, 2026.
The INM noted that the October-November-December season typically marks the transition to autumn and winter, characterized by a gradual decrease in temperatures and an increase in rainfall, particularly in the northern and central-eastern regions. The climate normals for 1991-2020 show that average seasonal temperatures range from 12°C to 18°C in the north and center of the country and from 16°C to 19°C in the southern regions.
The INM also provided information on the normal temperature ranges for each month. In October, average temperatures normally range from 17°C to 23°C in the north and center of the country and from 22°C to 24°C in the south. In November, the average temperatures normally range from 11°C to 18°C in the north and center and from 15°C to 19°C in the south. By December, the average temperatures normally range from 7°C to 14°C in the north and center and from 11°C to 15°C in the south.
The INM's forecast also mentions the possibility of slightly above-normal precipitation levels. However, the meteorological institute noted that its seasonal forecast models do not show a strong dominant signal for rainfall across the country. According to the 1991-2020 climate normals, seasonal rainfall totals typically range from 122 to 443 mm in the north and coastal regions, from 55 to 102 mm in the center-west, and from 30 to 97 mm in the south.
The INM's forecast is based on its analysis of climate data and models. The meteorological institute uses a range of tools and techniques to produce its seasonal forecasts, including climate models and statistical analysis. These forecasts aim to provide insights into the likely weather patterns for the upcoming season, helping to inform decision-making in various sectors, such as agriculture and water management.
The Tunisian government's efforts to improve meteorological forecasting and early warning systems are part of a broader strategy to enhance the country's resilience to climate-related hazards. By providing accurate and reliable forecasts, the INM aims to support the development of effective climate-resilient policies and strategies, ultimately contributing to the country's sustainable development and economic growth.
The warmer-than-normal temperatures predicted for autumn 2026 may have implications for various sectors in Tunisia, including agriculture, water management, and human health. As the country prepares for the upcoming season, stakeholders are advised to take into account the potential impacts of the forecasted weather patterns and to plan accordingly.
Key points
- The INM predicts that autumn 2026 will be warmer than normal across Tunisia.
- The meteorological institute forecasts slightly above-normal precipitation levels for the season.
- The INM's forecast is based on its analysis of climate data and models.
