The Tunisian economy has been on a moderate growth trajectory in recent years, according to the World Bank's latest economic bulletin. The growth rate reached 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in the first half of 2026, driven by the recovery of agriculture, mechanical and electrical industries, and tourism. However, the economy remains vulnerable to rising import prices and persistent public finance imbalances.
The World Bank forecasts that Tunisia's economic growth will slow to 2.3% in 2026 and average 2.1% from 2027 to 2028. The unemployment rate declined to 14.9% in the second quarter of 2026, but women's unemployment remains a concern, standing at 21.6%, nearly double the rate for men. The World Bank emphasizes that water scarcity is a major economic risk for Tunisia.
Tunisia currently has approximately 380 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per capita per year, well below the international threshold for absolute water scarcity. Climate change, increasing demand, and resource degradation are expected to exacerbate pressure on the already fragile water system. The economic cost of inaction could be significant, with the World Bank estimating a 6.4% decline in Tunisia's GDP by 2050 if no measures are taken.
The agriculture sector is among those most exposed to water scarcity, employing around 14% of the national workforce and up to half of rural workers. Without adaptation measures, water stress and climate change could lead to the loss of at least 30% of agricultural jobs by mid-century, significantly reducing agricultural production. The impacts will not be limited to the agricultural sector, affecting tourism, agribusiness, industry, and all activities dependent on access to water.
The World Bank sees water security as an opportunity to strengthen Tunisia's economic resilience, stimulate investment, and create new jobs. The RESEau program, supported by the World Bank Group, aims to enhance the resilience of Tunisia's water sector, with its first phase expected to generate around 4,000 permanent jobs and 13,400 temporary jobs.
Water security is crucial for preserving production capacities, supporting employment, and fostering more resilient growth, according to the World Bank. Sustainable management of water resources is a priority for Tunisia's economic, social, and environmental development. The World Bank estimates that addressing water scarcity will require around $900 million per year.
The Tunisian government faces challenges in addressing these issues, including a delayed budget for 2027, which has raised concerns among the finance commission of the Assembly of People's Representatives. The country's economic growth and job creation efforts will require careful management of water resources and implementation of measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Key points
- Tunisia's economy grew 2.4% in the first half of 2026.
- Water scarcity poses a significant economic risk to Tunisia, with potential GDP decline of 6.4% by 2050.
- The World Bank supports Tunisia's efforts to address water scarcity and promote economic resilience through initiatives like the RESEau program.
