Tunisia's current account deficit is projected to decline to 3.8% of GDP by 2027, down from 4.3% in 2026, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary. This represents a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The report, published in mid-October, notes that despite a rise in energy import costs during the first half of 2027, the country's external position is expected to improve.
The report attributes the expected decline in the current account deficit to various factors, including measures aimed at reducing imports and improving tourism sector revenues. These factors are anticipated to mitigate the impact of higher energy import costs, which are expected to remain a challenge until the first quarter of 2027. The tourism sector is a significant contributor to Tunisia's economy, and improvements in this area are likely to support the country's external position.
BMI also assessed the risks associated with Tunisia's external liquidity, concluding that they would remain limited due to support from partners, including Algeria and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). This support is expected to help mitigate potential pressures on the country's external position. Tunisia's ability to secure financing from international partners will be crucial in addressing its external challenges.
The report is part of BMI's analysis of Tunisia's external position, titled "Energy Import Bill to Keep Tunisia's External Position Under Pressure Until Q1 2027." BMI is a leading provider of economic research and analysis, offering data and forecasts to investors, financial institutions, companies, governments, and research centers. The firm's expertise in country and sector risk analysis is widely recognized.
Tunisia's energy import costs have been a significant challenge in recent years, driven by the country's reliance on imported energy sources. The government's efforts to reduce energy consumption and increase domestic production have been ongoing, but progress has been slow. The country's external position is also influenced by its tourism sector, which has faced challenges in recent years due to security concerns and global economic trends.
The BMI report also noted that Tunisia's external position would continue to face challenges due to its high energy import bill. However, the report's authors expect that the country's external position will improve gradually, driven by a combination of factors, including policy measures and external support. Tunisia's economic growth prospects are closely tied to its ability to address its external challenges and implement structural reforms.
The report's findings are consistent with Tunisia's efforts to address its economic challenges and improve its external position. The government has implemented various measures aimed at reducing the country's reliance on imports and improving its competitiveness. These efforts are expected to support Tunisia's economic growth and improve its external position over the medium term.
Key points
- Tunisia's current account deficit is expected to decline to 3.8% of GDP by 2027.
