The National Meteorological Institute of Tunisia has released a bulletin indicating that the country is likely to experience higher-than-average temperatures during the November-December-January season. This period typically marks the transition to winter, characterized by lower temperatures and significant rainfall, especially in the north and central regions. However, this year's forecast suggests a deviation from the norm.
According to the institute's data, the average seasonal temperatures for November, December, and January range from 8 to 15 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and between 12 and 16 degrees Celsius in the south. The lowest seasonal temperatures are usually recorded in the town of Tala. In terms of rainfall, the institute reports that the average seasonal totals range from 116 to 475 mm in the north and coastal areas, 56 to 106 mm in the central west, and 29 to 89 mm in the south.
The bulletin provides detailed monthly forecasts, indicating that November is expected to see temperatures ranging from 11 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and 15 to 19 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall in November is typically more abundant in the north, with totals ranging from 39 to 96 mm, and reaching 160 mm in Tabarka. In contrast, the central region can expect between 21 and 41 mm, while the south typically sees less than 34 mm.
December's forecast suggests average temperatures will range from 7 to 14 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and 11 to 15 degrees Celsius in the south. The institute expects more significant rainfall in the far north, with totals exceeding 100 mm and reaching 161 mm in Tabarka. In the central region, rainfall is expected to range from 14 to 47 mm, while the south typically sees less than 32 mm.
January's forecast indicates that average temperatures will range from 6 to 13 degrees Celsius, with rainfall more abundant in the north, totaling between 51 and 148 mm. In the central region, rainfall is expected to range from 19 to 38 mm, while the south typically sees less than 24 mm. These forecasts suggest that Tunisia may experience a drier and warmer-than-usual winter.
The National Meteorological Institute's bulletin highlights the importance of these forecasts for the country's climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and water resources. The institute's data is based on reference periods, including the 1991-2020 period, which provides a reliable basis for predicting seasonal weather patterns.
The forecast of unseasonable heat and below-average rainfall has implications for Tunisia's environmental and economic sectors. As the country prepares for the upcoming winter season, authorities and citizens alike will need to take into account the predicted weather patterns to mitigate potential impacts on daily life and the economy.
Key points
- Tunisia is expected to experience higher-than-average temperatures and below-average rainfall from November to January.
- The country's north and central regions typically experience more significant rainfall during this period.
- The forecasts are based on reference periods, including the 1991-2020 period.
