Tunisia Faces Opportunities and Challenges in 2027

The global economy is at a crossroads, marked by geopolitical uncertainties, technological transformations, and evolving financial balances. As countries strive to balance growth, investment financing, and debt management, Tunisia sees an opportunity to leverage its assets, strengthen its productive fabric, and make its next budget a driver of sustainable economic development. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth is projected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

The IMF also highlights risks associated with escalating geopolitical tensions, new trade disruptions, and rising public debt. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of national economies with the international landscape. For emerging countries like Tunisia, factors such as energy price fluctuations, financing conditions, and demand from major trading partners are particularly significant. Meanwhile, global public debt continues to follow a worrying trajectory, potentially approaching 100% of global GDP by 2029.

The weight of debt varies by country, depending on financing costs, structure, currency, and the economy's growth capacity. Debt used to finance infrastructure, productive equipment, or energy projects can support long-term activity if economic returns justify the resources mobilized. Growth plays a crucial role in public finance sustainability, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is a key indicator. When economic activity progresses, public revenues increase, and deficits are controlled, stabilizing this ratio becomes more manageable.

Tunisia has several levers to integrate its 2027 budget into a growth strategy. Its geographic proximity to Europe, human skills, industrial fabric, and potential in digital services and renewable energies make it attractive for new investments. Developing export industries, automotive components, agri-food, and technological activities could strengthen its integration into regional and international value chains. This development would stimulate exports, broaden market access for Tunisian companies, and support local value-added creation.

Preparing the 2027 budget must consider energy price fluctuations, as a sustained increase in oil prices can rise the energy bill and compensation needs. Conversely, better energy efficiency and renewable energy development can gradually reduce this exposure. Accelerating solar and wind projects, improving electrical networks, and supporting companies in reducing energy consumption are ways to balance competitiveness, energy security, and public spending control.

Optimizing the budget also involves a more strategic allocation of public investment. Projects related to water management, irrigation, transportation, digital infrastructure, and modernizing collective equipment can improve business conditions and enhance territorial attractiveness. To maximize impact, these investments should be selected based on their economic and social utility, feasibility, and ability to generate sustainable benefits. Better coordination between public and private investments can also mobilize more financing for priority projects.

The success of the 2027 budget will depend on its ability to articulate economic and social objectives. Supporting purchasing power, improving public services, vocational training, and accompanying small and medium-sized enterprises are essential for the benefits of growth to reach a broader population segment. An effective budget policy must create conditions for sustainable, inclusive, and job-creating growth.

Key points

• The 2027 budget represents a strategic instrument for Tunisia to direct resources towards promising sectors, strengthen investment, and accompany economic transformation.