The World Bank's latest food security update, released on September 28, 2026, reveals that international prices of major grains have started to rise. Since June, grain prices have increased by 18%, maize by 26%, and wheat by 22%. The World Bank notes that global food markets remain generally well-supplied, but tighter production conditions and higher fertilizer costs are contributing to the price hike. These data points were recorded up to September 16, 2026.
Tunisia is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global grain prices due to its reliance on imports. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the country's wheat import needs for the 2026/2027 campaign are estimated at around 1.8 million tons, which is 8% less than the average of the past five years. Despite an improvement in national production, imports are expected to account for more than half of the local wheat supply. However, the situation is less strained than in previous years.
The FAO estimates that Tunisia's 2026 cereal production will reach around 1.8 million tons, nearly 20% more than the average of the past five years, thanks to favorable rainfall conditions from December 2025. This positive harvest provides some relief, but the country's dependence on imports means that international price trends remain a key factor to watch. In 2024, Tunisia imported around 1.59 million tons of wheat, valued at $417.1 million, with Ukraine and Russia among its main suppliers.
The current rise in global grain prices may not immediately translate to higher bread prices in Tunisia. The Office des céréales, Tunisia's grain import monopoly, purchases wheat through tenders and intervenes in the domestic market supply. Additionally, the FAO reports that Tunisian food inflation slowed to 6.6% in July 2026, down from 8.2% in April and May. The main price pressures came from meat and fresh fruits, while edible oil and egg prices declined year-over-year.
Nevertheless, the recent surge in global grain prices poses a potential risk to Tunisia's cereal import costs, particularly if international tensions persist. The country's reliance on imports means that a sustained increase in global prices can quickly lead to higher import bills and strain on food balances. The good 2026 harvest provides some breathing room, but the international situation remains a concern.
The 2025-2026 cereal harvest in Tunisia reached around 11 million quintals, with 8.1 million quintals of durum wheat, according to the Office des céréales. This positive outcome helps mitigate the impact of rising global prices, but the country's import needs remain substantial. Tunisia must still import more than half of its wheat, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global markets.
The Tunisian government and relevant authorities will need to closely monitor the situation and assess the potential implications for the country's food security and import bills. With the global grain market landscape evolving rapidly, Tunisia's policymakers will need to consider strategies to mitigate potential risks and ensure stable food supplies.
Key points
- Tunisia's reliance on grain imports makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices.
- The country's 2026 cereal production is estimated at around 1.8 million tons, providing some relief.
- Rising global grain prices pose a potential risk to Tunisia's cereal import costs.
