Trump's Unpopularity Poses Risk for Republicans in 2028

Republican strategists are sounding the alarm that President Donald Trump's persistently low approval ratings could significantly hinder the party's prospects in the 2028 presidential election. Despite leaving the White House, Trump's influence and unpopularity may still have a lasting impact on the party's performance. According to Whit Ayres, a longtime GOP pollster, the massive repudiation of Republican candidates in recent elections is largely attributed to Trump's unpopularity.

History suggests that an outgoing president's unpopularity often leads to their party's defeat in the subsequent presidential election. Since the turn of the 20th century, each time an outgoing president has been broadly unpopular, his party has lost the race to succeed him. Examples include Democrats Woodrow Wilson in 1920, Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968, and Republican George W. Bush in 2008.

Trump's situation is further complicated by his decision to double down on policies and style that alienated voters in the recent midterm elections. The appointment of Stephen Miller, his most ideologically extreme senior adviser, as White House chief of staff, and the selection of Rep. Jim Jordan as the new House Republican leader, indicate that the party is not adjusting its course in response to voter feedback.

The data from recent elections supports the notion that Trump's unpopularity is a significant liability for the party. In the 2024 presidential election, 82% of voters who disapproved of President Biden voted for Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. Similarly, in 2016, 89% of voters who disapproved of Obama voted for Trump.

Even in cases where a popular outgoing president did not guarantee success for their party, an unpopular retiring president has been a more reliable indicator of failure. Trump's two victories demonstrate how an unpopular president can still influence the outcome of the next election. In 2016, Trump captured a significantly larger share of voters who disapproved of Obama than Clinton won among those who approved.

The 2024 election results also highlight the challenges faced by a candidate trying to distance themselves from an unpopular outgoing president. Vice President Kamala Harris's missteps as a candidate were compounded by the pervasive discontent with the administration in which she served. Between 56% to 60% of voters in major swing states disapproved of Biden's performance, and between 81% to 87% of those disapprovers backed Trump.

One notable exception to this trend is Republican Sen. John McCain's 2008 campaign, where he won 30% of voters nationwide who disapproved of George W. Bush. However, McCain's situation was different, as he had occasionally clashed with Bush and ran a bitter race against him for the GOP nomination in 2000, allowing him to distance himself from his predecessor.

Key points

• Trump's low approval ratings could hurt Republicans in 2028
• History suggests an unpopular outgoing president's party often loses the next election
• Trump's influence and unpopularity may still impact the party's performance despite leaving the White House