The US midterm elections, set for November 3, are shaping up as a significant verdict on one of the most turbulent presidencies in US history. President Donald Trump's approval ratings are at a low, with his popularity going into the midterms lower than any predecessor in modern polling. The elections will determine control of the US legislature, with Americans voting for all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators.
Democrats are seeking control of Congress, which would grant them the power to investigate Trump's administration and stall his agenda. Forecaster Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning the House, projecting a 234-201 majority. Control of the House alone would give Democrats powerful committees and subpoena authority. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has vowed to hold Trump's administration accountable and has left the door open to a third Trump impeachment.
The midterm elections will also decide who controls the Senate, with Democrats narrowly favored to take it 51-49. A Senate win would allow Democrats to block Trump's judicial and cabinet nominees. Trump's record on the economy, including tariffs and the Iran war, is a key issue in the elections. His approval rating on handling the cost of living is at 17 percent, with inflation currently at 3.4 percent, higher than when he took office.
The conflict in the Middle East, now in its eighth month, has pushed gasoline prices above $4 a gallon, with only around a third of Americans approving of the strikes on Iran. Republican Senate candidates in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio have publicly urged Trump to end the war. Trump's eldest son received a lavish wedding gift from a Kremlin-linked Russian businessman, one of several ethics controversies Democrats have highlighted.
Despite these challenges, Republicans have a significant cash advantage, with Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC entering September with $416 million in the bank. Republican groups are outspending Democrats on the airwaves in several key Senate races. House Speaker Mike Johnson is touring over 40 districts in the final stretch, offering voters a choice between "common sense and Democrats' crazy."
The battlefield has widened since the summer, with Democrats now competitive in Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska – states Trump won by double digits in 2024. A gain of around 19 House seats would fall short of the 27-seat average midterm loss for a president's party over the past 90 years. For Trump, barred from seeking a third term, the midterms come as the fight over his legacy and who inherits his movement in 2028 begins.
The outcome of the midterms will have significant implications for Trump's legacy and the future of the Republican Party. A strong Republican showing would reinforce the argument that Trump permanently reshaped American politics. Significant Republican losses would raise questions about whether Trump built a lasting political movement or if he himself was the movement.
Key points
- Democrats are favored to win control of the House, with a 75 percent chance of a 234-201 majority.
- Trump's low approval ratings and the economy are key issues in the midterm elections.
- The outcome of the midterms will have significant implications for Trump's legacy and the future of the Republican Party.
