Tinubu Seeks to Win Back Northern Nigeria Ahead of 2027 Election

President Bola Tinubu is embarking on a significant political effort in Northern Nigeria, aiming to recover lost goodwill among voters who are increasingly disenchanted with his administration. With the January 16, 2027 presidential election approaching, Tinubu is focused on rebuilding political alliances in a region that could be decisive in determining the outcome of the next election. His recent activities, including a campaign flag-off in Kaduna and a pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, suggest a renewed effort to reconnect with voters.

Tinubu's challenges in Northern Nigeria are compounded by economic hardship, insecurity, and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Federal Government. The All Progressives Congress (APC) enjoyed significant goodwill in the region during the 2023 election, but that support has weakened over time. Atiku Abubakar, a formidable political figure in the region, is experiencing a resurgence in popular support, with sections of the Northern electorate increasingly receptive to his message of change.

The President's recent political manoeuvres have two interconnected objectives: reclaiming the Muslim North from Atiku's growing influence and strengthening his position in the predominantly Christian Middle Belt, where Peter Obi hopes to secure a substantial share of the votes. Obi's impressive performance in the Middle Belt during the 2023 election, where he secured victories in Plateau, Nasarawa, and the Federal Capital Territory, has raised concerns for Tinubu.

The APC's presidential campaign flag-off in Kaduna exposed the difficulties facing Tinubu in Northern Nigeria. The rally had poor attendance, and videos circulated online showing participants admitting to receiving money to attend. Campaign materials were also destroyed by individuals who had initially participated in the mobilisation. These developments suggest that Tinubu's political difficulties extend beyond the poor reception at the Kaduna rally.

Atiku's growing influence in the region is evident, with supporters chanting 'Sai Atiku' at some APC campaign appearances. The slogan 'Tinubu Must Go' has become increasingly visible in campaign rallies, and campaign billboards belonging to Tinubu and other APC candidates have been routinely vandalised. A video showing Nasarawa State Governor, Abdullahi Sule, being heckled and having an object thrown towards him while campaigning for Tinubu has further illustrated the increasingly hostile atmosphere confronting some ruling party politicians.

Tinubu's pilgrimage to Mecca was seen as an attempt to reconnect with the Muslim North and reinforce his religious credentials. However, critics argue that the pilgrimage was being used to recover politically from the Kaduna rally, and that Northern discontent is not religious but economic. Tinubu himself acknowledged the spiritual significance of the visit, saying he had prayed for wisdom and resilience to continue leading Nigeria.

The effectiveness of Tinubu's efforts in regaining support in Northern Nigeria remains to be seen. Critics argue that religious symbolism cannot substitute for addressing the economic concerns of voters. As the 2027 election approaches, Tinubu will need to demonstrate a deeper understanding of the region's concerns and develop strategies to address them if he hopes to win back the support of Northern voters.

Key points

• President Tinubu is working to regain support in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 election.
• Tinubu faces challenges from Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in the region.
• The President's efforts include a pilgrimage to Mecca and meetings with influential leaders.