The conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region has escalated, with federal forces seizing the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, over the weekend. This development comes after almost two weeks of fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan rebels. The rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces clashed on September 23, sparking fears of a return to the devastating civil war of 2020-2022. The federal forces have pushed back the rebel offensive, but the situation remains volatile.
Magnus Taylor, Deputy Director of the Horn of Africa project at the International Crisis Group, expressed surprise that the Tigrayans have not sustained their offensive against the federal government more successfully. He noted that the TPLF's retreat could indicate plans to relaunch a different sort of insurgency rather than an offensive campaign against the federal government. Taylor warned that growing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could broaden the conflict beyond Tigray, increasing the risk of a wider regional war.
Tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara have been rising for months, with Eritrea accusing Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly backing the Tigray rebels, with the added support of Sudan and Egypt, which all three countries deny. The presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea met in the Egyptian coastal city of El-Alamein on Sunday to discuss regional issues.
The meeting in El-Alamein was attended by Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who emphasized the need for cooperation and dialogue in managing natural resources and transboundary rivers in accordance with international law. The heads of state called for regional disputes to be resolved through peaceful means, stressing respect for international law and non-interference in the internal affairs of states in the Horn of Africa.
The conflict in Tigray has significant implications for the region, with the risk of a wider war being described as a "worst-case scenario" by analyst Magnus Taylor. The situation is being closely watched by regional and international actors, who are urging restraint and peaceful resolution. The Ethiopian government has vowed to secure sea access, amid fears of a return to war.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been a point of contention between Ethiopia and Egypt, with Cairo fearing it could reduce its share of Nile waters. The dam has been a source of tension for years, with Ethiopia and Egypt having different visions for its operation and management. The situation remains complex, with multiple actors and interests involved.
The international community is urging calm and restraint in the region, with a focus on finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The situation in Tigray and the broader Horn of Africa region remains volatile, with the risk of further escalation and conflict.
Key points
- The conflict in Tigray has driven the risk of a wider war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
- The TPLF's retreat from Mekelle could indicate plans to relaunch a different sort of insurgency.
- Regional actors are urging restraint and peaceful resolution to the conflict.
