The modern world is witnessing a new kind of Cold War, one that is not fought with traditional military might or ideological divisions, but through technology. The contest for global power is increasingly centered around who controls the infrastructure that underpins modern society. This includes semiconductors, artificial intelligence, undersea cables, digital platforms, and financial infrastructure. The rivalry between the United States and China is at the forefront of this technological contest, but other regions, including Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, are also playing crucial roles.
Semiconductors have become a critical component in this technological contest. These tiny chips power a wide range of devices, from smartphones and vehicles to telecommunications and artificial intelligence. As a result, control over advanced chips has become an instrument of economic and national security policy. The United States has been regulating the export of advanced semiconductors to China, while China is investing heavily in domestic semiconductor capability and reducing its exposure to Western-controlled technologies. Europe, meanwhile, is seeking to reduce its strategic dependencies and strengthen its own semiconductor production.
The importance of undersea cables cannot be overstated. These cables carry around 99% of global internet traffic, including financial transactions, cloud computing, government communications, and ordinary WhatsApp messages. Control over cable routes, landing stations, maintenance, and data centers is therefore becoming increasingly strategically important. Europe is investing in secure submarine cable systems as part of its strategic autonomy agenda, while Asia remains indispensable in the production of advanced chips.
Artificial intelligence represents another frontier in the technological contest. The assumption that the United States would permanently dominate advanced AI can no longer be taken for granted. The performance gap between leading American and Chinese models has narrowed dramatically, with models from the two countries repeatedly exchanging leading positions. This raises questions for other regions, including Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, and Africa, about whether they should develop their own computing capacity, models, datasets, and regulatory systems.
The global financial infrastructure is also undergoing a significant transformation. For decades, Western financial infrastructure and the dollar-centered international system have enjoyed enormous influence over cross-border transactions. However, alternative networks are expanding, including China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). By August, CIPS reported 1,853 participants, with its network reaching banking institutions across 192 countries and regions.
Africa must navigate these developments carefully. The continent possesses critical minerals, a young population, rapidly expanding digital markets, and some of the world's most innovative mobile-payment ecosystems. African states can negotiate from their own interests by diversifying cable connections, developing regional data centers, protecting critical minerals, building AI skills, supporting local digital industries, and strengthening interoperable African payment systems.
In a multipolar technological order, strategic autonomy may prove more valuable than permanent alignment. The new Cold War is less about flags and ideological slogans than about infrastructure. The countries that understand this transformation early will shape the digital century, while those that do not may discover that political independence means much less when someone else controls the technology on which their economy runs.
Key points
- African states can negotiate from their own interests by diversifying cable connections, developing regional data centers, and protecting critical minerals.
- The new Cold War is being fought through semiconductors, artificial intelligence, undersea cables, digital platforms, and financial infrastructure.
- Control over advanced chips has become an instrument of economic and national security policy.
