A recent report highlights a significant shift in the tactics of armed groups across Africa, with a focus on economic warfare and geographic dispersal rather than conventional territorial combat. Between August 1 and September 13, 2026, groups such as Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) in Mali and Islamic State Sahel Province in Burkina Faso have intensified their activities. In Mali, JNIM's six-month fuel blockade has severely impacted the country's petroleum supply, forcing Bamako to rely on armed convoy escorts.
In Burkina Faso, the rivalry between JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province has escalated into open conflict, with reports of a potentially deadly battle between the two groups in a remote region. The competition for territorial control, mining revenue, and recruitment has led to increased violence, with the two groups now directing a significant amount of violence at each other. Meanwhile, in Nigeria's northeast, a secret three-month ceasefire between the government and the Bakura Doro faction of Boko Haram has produced a measurable reduction in attacks.
However, the ceasefire's structural weakness was demonstrated by clashes between Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Sambisa Forest, which continued to fight both the faction and the state. In the Horn of Africa, al-Shabaab has escalated its Kenyan front, coordinating claimed attacks on Kenya Defense Forces' bases across four counties in a single week. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reported Houthi-supplied weapons and UAVs, indicating a potential qualitative capability shift.
In the Great Lakes, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a rebel group operating under the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), has extended its footprint beyond the Beni-Ituri corridor into Tshopo province, marking its widest operating range to date. In Mozambique, ISIS-Mozambique executed a three-day raid on the Marangira hunting camp in Niassa province, killing at least one person, abducting up to 20, and displacing around 2,700.
JNIM's fuel blockade in Mali, which targets the overland routes carrying 95% of the country's petroleum imports, has been enforced continuously since its reimposition on April 28. The blockade has destroyed over 300 fuel tankers since it began, with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies assessing that the attacks represent an explicit economic strategy to isolate Bamako. The group's public demands in local languages through social media channels have also been notable.
The situation in Mali is further complicated by the strategic importance of the Kayes region, which is the second-largest contributor to the country's GDP and produces around 80% of its industrial gold. The rivalry between JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province has also led to increased violence in Burkina Faso, with ACLED flagging a potentially deadly battle between the two groups.
Overall, the trends in Africa suggest that armed groups are prioritizing revenue extraction and economic disruption over defended positions, dispersing outward under military pressure, and fragmenting internally in ways that redistribute rather than reduce violence. The developments in Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and other countries highlight the evolving nature of terrorism in Africa.
Key points
- Armed groups in Africa are shifting towards economic warfare and geographic dispersal.
- JNIM's fuel blockade in Mali has had a significant impact on the country's petroleum supply.
- The rivalry between JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province has escalated into open conflict in Burkina Faso.
