The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has released a 10-day weather outlook indicating that northern coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, and Tanga, can expect periods of rainfall between October 1 and 10. This forecast also extends to the islands of Unguja and Pemba, where rain showers are expected over some areas.
According to the TMA, the anticipated rainfall is linked to changes in atmospheric pressure systems and warmer sea surface temperatures over the western Indian Ocean. The northern hemisphere high-pressure systems, including the Azores and Siberian systems, are expected to intensify, while the St Helena and Mascarene high-pressure systems in the southern hemisphere are expected to weaken slightly.
These changes are predicted to push the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) slightly southwards. Additionally, sea surface temperatures over the western Indian Ocean are expected to be warmer than those over the eastern Indian Ocean. This condition is anticipated to pull moist maritime easterly to southeasterly wind flow towards the coastal and nearby areas, thereby enhancing rainfall-making mechanisms over those areas.
The forecast follows recent periods of rainfall recorded in several parts of the country between September 21 and 30. During that period, the TMA reported thundershowers over the Lake Victoria Basin and rain showers over coastal areas, the southwestern highlands, and northeastern highlands.
The TMA attributed the recent rainfall to prevailing atmospheric systems, including moisture-rich maritime easterly winds moving towards coastal and nearby areas. For the first 10 days of October, the TMA expects periods of thundershowers in a few areas of the Lake Victoria Basin, covering regions such as Kagera, Geita, Shinyanga, Mwanza, Simiyu, and Mara.
In addition to the Lake Victoria Basin, rain showers are also expected in a few areas of the northeastern highlands, covering Arusha, Manyara, and Kilimanjaro. Along the southern coast, covering Mtwara and Lindi, periods of rain showers are expected in some areas. However, dry conditions are forecast in western Tanzania, covering Kigoma, Katavi, and Tabora, as well as the central regions of Dodoma and Singida.
The southwestern highlands, covering Rukwa, Songwe, Mbeya, Njombe, and Iringa, are also expected to remain dry, with similar dry conditions forecast for Ruvuma and the southern part of Morogoro Region. The TMA's forecast aims to inform the public about the expected weather conditions, enabling them to plan accordingly.
Key points
- The Tanzania Meteorological Authority forecasts rainfall in coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, between October 1 and 10.
- The expected rainfall is associated with changes in atmospheric pressure systems and warmer sea surface temperatures over the western Indian Ocean.
- Dry conditions are forecast in western and central Tanzania, as well as the southwestern highlands and Ruvuma region.
