Tanzania's annual headline inflation rate eased to 4.2% in October 2026, down from 4.3% recorded in September, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on November 9, 2026. The National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) rose from 119.63 in October 2025 to 124.71 in October 2026, reflecting a gradual upward trend in the overall price level. The NCPI tracks price changes across a fixed basket of 383 goods and services.
The annual Headline Inflation Rate fluctuated between 3.2% and 4.3% throughout the 12-month period from October 2025 to October 2026, reaching a peak of 4.3% in August and September 2026 before easing to 4.2% in October 2026. On a monthly basis, the NCPI declined from 125.07 in September 2026 to 124.71 in October 2026, a decrease of 0.3%. This decline was driven by decreases in food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as non-food items.
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages inflation, which has the highest weight in the basket at 28.2%, eased to 3.6% year-on-year in October 2026, from 3.9% recorded in September 2026. The index fell from 134.70 in September 2026 to 134.17 in October 2026, a decline of 0.4%. Food items contributing to the monthly decrease included finger millet grains, maize grains, fresh fish, maize flour, cooking oil, groundnuts, fruits, rice, and sorghum grains.
The inflation rate for all items excluding food and non-alcoholic beverages eased to 4.5% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 4.6% recorded in September 2026. Non-food items contributing to the monthly decrease included firewood, charcoal, footwear for children, household furniture, garments for men, garments for women, television sets, and household utensils. Transport recorded the highest annual inflation rate among all main groups at 14.9%, with a weight of 14.1% in the NCPI basket.
The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels category, the second-largest component of the basket with a weight of 15.1%, recorded annual inflation of 2.3%, with its index falling from 121.47 in September 2026 to 120.58 in October 2026, a monthly decrease of 0.7%. Other categories, including Clothing and Footwear, Restaurants and Accommodation Services, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, and Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, also recorded varying inflation rates.
The Core Inflation Rate, which excludes volatile items such as unprocessed food, energy, and utilities with the exception of maize flour, eased to 4.0% in October 2026, down from 4.1% recorded in September 2026. The Core Index covers 297 items representing 73.9% of the total NCPI weight and provides policymakers with a more stable measure of underlying price trends. The Non-Core Index stood at 4.9% year-on-year in October 2026, with a monthly decrease of 0.3%.
The next NCPI release, covering November 2026, is scheduled for December 8, 2026. Key categories to watch include transport, housing, and food, which have been driving inflation trends in recent months. The easing of inflation in October 2026 may be a welcome relief for consumers and policymakers, but the outlook for future inflation remains uncertain.
Key points
- Tanzania's annual inflation rate decreased to 4.2% in October 2026, driven by declines in maize, firewood, and charcoal prices.
- The transport category recorded the highest annual inflation rate at 14.9%, while the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels category recorded an annual inflation rate of 2.3%.
- The Core Inflation Rate eased to 4.0% in October 2026, down from 4.1% recorded in September 2026.
