Databank Research has released its 2026 Half-Year Report, providing an outlook on the yields of 91-day and 364-day Treasury bills in Ghana. According to the report, the 91-day bill is expected to trade within 5.5%-7.5% in the second half of 2026, while the 364-day bill would trade within 12.5%-14.0%. This forecast reflects the competing effects of the Treasury's cost-containment strategy and higher funding requirements linked to upcoming obligations.
Presently, the yields on the 91-day and 364-day bills are hovering around 4.9% and 10% respectively. Databank Research attributes its outlook to the active yield management that should limit sharp repricing, although increased financing needs are likely to keep rates under moderate upward pressure over the period. The research firm expects domestic liquidity conditions to remain broadly supportive in 2H'26, with the GH¢10.8 billion DDEP coupon payment due in August 2026 providing an initial boost to market liquidity.
Reinvestment by banks, pension funds, and collective investment schemes should sustain demand for government securities, supporting auction coverage and secondary-market activity, particularly in 3Q'26. However, the impact may moderate later in the year as increased sovereign and corporate issuance absorbs excess liquidity. Databank Research also expects the Treasury to progressively build on its return to the domestic bond market through targeted medium- and long-term issuances.
The financial market research firm foresees that this strategy will support yield-curve development and reduce reliance on short-dated T-bills. According to Databank Research, planned debt-reprofiling and bond-buyback operations aimed at retiring high-cost obligations and smoothing the maturity profile will complement this approach. Therefore, issuance should remain active as the government builds the Sinking Fund from GH¢15.6 billion towards its GH¢30 billion year-end target.
Investor demand remained robust in the first-half of 2026, with total bids rising 94.1% year-on-year to GH¢234.86 billion. Average target-cover and bid-to-cover ratios of 1.10x and 1.39x, respectively, reflected healthy auction demand despite intermittent moderation in participation. This demonstrates a strong appetite for government securities in the market.
Databank Research also noted that the Treasury's strategy will strengthen buffers ahead of sizeable DDEP maturities from 2027. The research firm's forecast takes into account the current market conditions and the government's plans to manage its debt. By progressively building on its return to the domestic bond market, the Treasury aims to achieve a more sustainable debt profile.
The expected increase in yields is also influenced by the government's plan to issue more debt to finance its activities. With a larger issuance of government securities, the market is likely to experience a moderate upward pressure on rates. Nevertheless, Databank Research expects the market to remain stable, supported by robust investor demand and active yield management.
Key points
- 91-day T-bill yield expected to trade within 5.5%-7.5% in 2H'26.
- 364-day T-bill yield expected to trade within 12.5%-14.0% in 2H'26.
- Investor demand for government securities remained robust in 1H'26, with total bids rising 94.1% year-on-year.
