Researchers with the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab have warned that extreme heat caused by this year’s “super-El Niño” could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe from June this year to February 2027. The number of extremely hot days is likely to rise by 44% compared to normal years, according to the report. This projection is based on current climate trends and the expected impact of the El Niño event.
The country likely to suffer the most excess heat-related fatalities from September 2026 to February 2027 is Nigeria with 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600. These numbers are based on the expected increase in extreme heat events and their impact on vulnerable populations. The report highlights the need for emergency response efforts to be directed to high-priority regions to tackle heat-related mortality in the coming months.
Heat in Africa’s Sahel region, including Niger and Chad as well as Nigeria and Sudan, is likely to cause an additional 66,800 deaths over the six-month period. The Sahel region is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns exacerbating existing health challenges. The report emphasizes the need for targeted interventions in this region to mitigate the impact of extreme heat.
The researchers also project that the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia will see an additional 19,400 deaths combined. These countries are also expected to experience an increase in extreme heat events, which will have a significant impact on public health. The report highlights the need for governments and health organizations to take proactive measures to prepare for the expected increase in heat-related illnesses.
The number of excess deaths could even climb higher if El Niño extends further into 2027, with key areas of the northern hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, especially vulnerable during their summer months. The report notes that the impact of El Niño on global temperatures will be felt for several months, and that the situation could worsen if the event persists.
Climate Impact Lab described this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from the future”, delivering temperatures that will become normal in just a few decades. The report emphasizes that the current El Niño event is a harbinger of what is to come, and that urgent action is needed to prepare for the expected impacts of climate change. The researchers are calling on governments and health organizations to take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of extreme heat.
“This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Michael Greenstone, economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the lab. The report provides critical information for policymakers and health experts to develop targeted interventions and emergency response plans to address the expected increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths.
Key points
- 451,000 excess deaths are expected globally due to extreme heat caused by the "super-El Niño" event.
