Sudan's military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is risking repeating the mistakes of former president Omar al-Bashir by turning to Russia for political and economic support. According to Sudanese journalist and political analyst Rasha Awad, Burhan's latest diplomatic engagement with Moscow, including proposals for Russian investment in mining, infrastructure, and a free economic zone on the Red Sea coast, echoes al-Bashir's efforts to cultivate closer ties with Russia during the final years of his rule.
Al-Bashir visited Russia in November 2017 and asked President Vladimir Putin to protect Sudan against what he described as aggressive American actions. He also expressed interest in strengthening military cooperation and proposed a Russian military presence on the Red Sea coast. However, al-Bashir was overthrown in April 2019 following months of nationwide protests after nearly three decades in power. Awad warned that closer relations with Moscow would not guarantee Burhan's political survival.
Awad described the renewed engagement with Russia as a reaction to Burhan's failure to make progress towards peace and his lack of cooperation with international efforts, particularly those led by the United States, to end the conflict. She said Burhan appeared to be using the prospect of closer relations with Moscow as a political manoeuvre to counter Western pressure and strengthen his hold on power. However, she warned that the strategy is unlikely to succeed because it overlooks the competing interests of major international and regional powers.
Awad questioned whether Russia would be willing or able to provide the political and military backing Burhan might expect, particularly given the strategic importance of the Red Sea and the interests of other international powers in the region. She pointed to Russia's military presence in Syria, arguing that its strategic relationship with the government of Bashar al-Assad did not prevent the collapse of his rule in December 2024.
Awad also expressed scepticism about the prospect of significant long-term Russian investment in Sudan while the country remains engulfed in war and political instability. She said uncertainty, competing regional interests, and the absence of a stable investment environment would discourage countries and companies from committing substantial capital to the country. Instead, she warned that agreements involving land concessions, strategic locations, and natural resources could be negotiated behind closed doors without adequate public scrutiny or consideration of the benefits to Sudan's economy.
Awad further warned that efforts to deepen military and strategic cooperation with Russia could draw Sudan into wider geopolitical competition between Moscow and Washington, adding to the country's existing political and security challenges. She said those pursuing closer relations with Russia are underestimating the complexity of international interests surrounding the Red Sea and the potential consequences of aligning Sudan with one side in broader power rivalries.
Awad said Burhan's priority should be to pursue a negotiated settlement rather than rely on diplomatic manoeuvres and external alliances to preserve his position. She argued that ending the military's involvement in politics and economic activities is crucial for Sudan's stability and that a just peace is the only way to ensure a safe exit for Burhan and Sudan.
Key points
- Burhan's overtures to Russia may not guarantee his political survival.
- Sudan's instability and war may discourage long-term Russian investment.
- A negotiated settlement is crucial for Sudan's stability and Burhan's safe exit.
