The ongoing civil war in Sudan has resulted in a significant number of fatalities, with various organizations providing different estimates. According to conflict monitoring organization ACLED, around 19,000 direct deaths from political violence were reported across Sudan in 2025. In contrast, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program estimated that at least 60,000 people were killed in attacks against civilians, with over 10,000 deaths in fighting between the army and armed groups.
The capture of El-Fasher in the Darfur region by the Rapid Support Forces in October 2025 marked a significant territorial and strategic shift in the war. This event was one of the deadliest episodes, with Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab estimating that at least 60,000 people were killed during and after the capture between late October and December 2025. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program corroborated this estimate, also reporting 60,000 fatalities, while also providing a higher estimate of 75,000.
The differences in estimates stem from how organizations select and handle sources. ACLED reports a single fatality number, taking the most conservative figure when sources disagree. In contrast, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program provides a range of estimates, including a "high" estimate of 75,000 and a "low" estimate to flag uncertainty. The Uppsala program also records summary events, which present the total death toll over a longer period or wider area.
A team of researchers, including Paola Vesco, developed a model to measure the uncertainty around conflict death estimates. The model takes into account the tendency of conflict datasets to underestimate fatalities and provides a more realistic range of possible death tolls. When applied to Sudan in 2025, the model indicated that the most likely death toll is around 80,000, with a 90% probability that the actual number falls between 73,000 and 90,000.
The researchers' model also suggests that there is a small chance that the actual number of fatalities could be as high as 100,000. While these estimates should be read with caution, they provide a more nuanced understanding of the uncertainty surrounding conflict death reports. By providing a range of plausible fatalities instead of a single figure, the model gives weight to the estimate and leaves little room to dismiss inconvenient numbers as unreliable.
Understanding the variation in conflict death estimates across sources is crucial for increasing transparency. The uncertainty around death reports became a political issue during the attack on El-Fasher, but researchers argue that it should be a scientific one that can be measured. The evidence suggests that the El-Fasher massacre could have been prevented, with NGOs and academic institutions repeatedly warning foreign officials of an impending bloodbath.
The Rapid Support Forces' main supporter, the United Arab Emirates, has faced pressure regarding its role in the conflict. The conflict has resulted in significant humanitarian crises, including disease and starvation, as the Rapid Support Forces built earthen walls around El-Fasher in an effort to starve out the population. The UN fact-finding mission concluded that the Rapid Support Forces' killings in El-Fasher bore the hallmarks of genocide.
Key points
- The estimated death toll in Sudan's 2025 conflict could reach 100,000.
- Various organizations have provided different estimates of fatalities, ranging from 19,000 to 75,000.
- A new model has been developed to measure the uncertainty around conflict death estimates, providing a more realistic range of possible death tolls.
