The Sudanese conflict has entered a new phase, three and a half years after it began in April 2023. According to researcher Israa Mahmoud Ahmed, the war has shifted from a focus on territorial control to a struggle for dominance along key corridors. The army is making gains in Kurdufan, while the RSF and its allies are opening a new front along the Ethiopian border. This development has resulted in a negative balance, with neither side able to achieve a decisive military victory or negotiate a political settlement.
The conflict in Kurdufan has intensified, with 2,876 attacks reported since April 2023, accounting for approximately 19.7% of the total attacks in Sudan. According to data from the ACLED project, at least 12,314 people have been killed in the region. Kurdufan is a critical corridor linking the central region controlled by the army to Darfur, which has been under RSF control since the fall of El-Fashir in October 2025.
The army's recent advances in Kurdufan aim to cut off the RSF's supply lines between North Kurdufan and the western region. The military's spokesperson, Mohamed Diddan, described this development as a "major turning point." However, the humanitarian cost of the conflict continues to rise, with the number of displaced people in Kurdufan increasing by 65% between February and June 2026, exceeding 219,000 people, according to the International Organization for Migration.
The conflict has also had significant economic consequences, with the Sudanese pound losing nearly half its value in areas controlled by the army during the summer of 2026. This development suggests that the cost of the war is being felt not only on the front lines but also in the country's economic depth. Meanwhile, the RSF has launched a new front in the Nile Blue region, with clashes reported near the Roseries Dam, approximately 50-60 kilometers away.
The international community has expressed concerns about the conflict's escalation, with the UN Security Council reporting allegations of external support for the RSF, including the use of Ethiopian territory to supply the group. The council has also renewed sanctions on Darfur for two months, while the US has withdrawn a proposal to extend an arms embargo to the entire country.
The political process remains stalled, with the US-proposed 90-day humanitarian ceasefire still pending. The Sudanese army's leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has announced his refusal to negotiate, vowing to regain control of "every inch" of the country. The conflict has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis, with over 33 million people in need of assistance and 19.5 million facing severe food insecurity.
The likely scenario is that the conflict will continue as a prolonged war of attrition, solidifying the control of two rival powers in a country on the brink of famine. The situation in 14 regions of North Darfur, South Darfur, and South Kurdufan is particularly dire, with approximately 200,000 people facing catastrophic conditions. The ongoing conflict threatens to entrench divisions and create long-term instability in Sudan.
Key points
- The conflict in Sudan has entered a new phase, with the army and RSF vying for control along key corridors.
- The humanitarian cost of the conflict continues to rise, with over 219,000 people displaced in Kurdufan and 19.5 million facing severe food insecurity.
- The international community has expressed concerns about external support for the RSF and the conflict's escalation, with the UN Security Council renewing sanctions on Darfur.
