The South African Weather Service has issued a warning about the current El Niño cycle, describing it as "an exceptional event in both its timing and magnitude". The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) is a cyclical climate phenomenon that affects various parts of the globe differently, usually spelling hotter and drier conditions in Southern Africa's summer rainfall areas. According to climatologists, the rate at which the Pacific Ocean surface waters are warming is "highly unusual", with existing temperature records being broken.
Meteorology professor at the University of Pretoria Willem Landman noted that the previous El Niño over the summer of 2023/24 was classified as very strong, but there were pockets where rain wasn't too bad. He emphasized that while an El Niño is highly predictable, the consequences are harder to predict, citing instances where rainfall had remained normal in two of the last seven El Niño events. However, Landman described the strength and early onset of this El Niño as "unique".
The El Niño event is classified based on Pacific surface temperatures, with moderate events reaching 1ºC above normal, strong events reaching 1.5ºC above normal, and very strong events reaching 2ºC above normal. In August and September, the surface temperature was 32ºC, up to 3.5ºC above normal, making it not only very hot but also very early in the cycle. The weather service stated that current observations and forecasts indicate that the event may reach a magnitude unprecedented in the instrumental record.
According to the South African Weather Service, the El Niño event is expected to peak late this year or early next year. Weather service lead scientist Dr Christien Engelbrecht said there was an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall from December to February, and heatwaves were highly likely. This could have severe implications for Southern Africa's summer rainfall areas, which are expected to experience hotter and drier conditions.
Senior climate science researcher at the Agricultural Research Council Dr Johan Malherbe noted that maize yields commonly dropped in El Niño years, and grazing was also affected. This could see a "big jump" in the price of white maize, a staple food in Southern Africa. Malherbe emphasized the need for farmers to take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of the drought, such as planting less maize or selling stock before grazing deteriorates.
Agricultural extension officers need to communicate with small-scale and subsistence farmers to plan mitigation strategies. The impact of the El Niño event on food security and the economy is a major concern, with the potential for significant price increases and food shortages. The South African Weather Service and other stakeholders are working to raise awareness and prepare farmers and communities for the potential effects of the El Niño event.
The South African Weather Service is closely monitoring the situation and providing regular updates and forecasts. The weather service is urging farmers, communities, and stakeholders to take proactive measures to prepare for the potential effects of the El Niño event. By working together, it is hoped that the impacts of the drought can be mitigated, and the effects on food security and the economy can be minimized.
Key points
- El Niño event classified as "exceptional" due to its early onset and magnitude.
- Southern Africa expected to experience hotter and drier conditions, with increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall and heatwaves.
- Farmers and communities urged to take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of the drought.
