The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation in South Sudan has issued a warning about potential Nile flooding due to expected rises in Lake Victoria's water levels. According to the Ministry, communities living along riverbanks and floodplains should prepare for possible flooding as increased flows from the Lake Victoria Basin could affect the White Nile system in South Sudan. This warning is based on forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The ICPAC climate outlook indicates an increased likelihood of El Niño conditions, with above-normal rainfall expected over the Lake Victoria Basin and parts of the wider Nile Basin. This could substantially raise inflows into Lake Victoria, and hydrological simulations suggest that Lake Victoria's water level could rise significantly, potentially exceeding its historical maximum. As a result, riverine flooding along the Nile, including in vulnerable areas in and around Juba, is a possibility.
Despite the warning, current measurements do not indicate an immediate flood emergency along the main Nile. Hydrological monitoring stations from Nimule to Renk and from Nasir to Bentiu are recording decreasing water levels, which remain below established flood-alert thresholds. The Ministry is issuing the warning as an advance preparedness measure, rather than announcing that flooding is currently occurring.
The warning follows earlier concerns over high water levels in the Lake Victoria Basin. In September, South Sudan received notification from Uganda's Ministry of Water and Environment about anticipated high water levels in Lake Victoria and the possibility of increased downstream flows. This concern is not new for South Sudan, as the Ministry warned of potential flooding in May 2024 after Lake Victoria reached record-high levels.
The Ministry maintains a national flood-preparedness programme that monitors changes in Lake Victoria and the wider Nile system and coordinates early warnings with states and humanitarian partners. The programme aims to reduce possible loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and disruption of livelihoods. Undersecretary of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Sultan Lam Tungwar Kueigwong, emphasized the importance of early notification.
The anticipated flood risk comes as South Sudan is also dealing with severe drought conditions in several areas. Reduced rainfall between June and September 2026 has affected water resources, livestock, and crops across various states. The Ministry says the situation highlights the need for communities and authorities to prepare for both extremes, drought and potential flooding.
The Ministry is advising people living on floodplains and along river shorelines to remain alert and take precautionary measures. Authorities are urged to prepare for possible increased flows in the coming days. The Ministry will continue monitoring developments in collaboration with Uganda, Nile Basin Technical Advisory Committee counterparts, and other relevant institutions, providing further updates to support coordinated preparedness and decision-making.
Key points
- The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation warns of potential Nile flooding due to rising Lake Victoria water levels.
- The warning is based on forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
- South Sudan is also dealing with severe drought conditions in several areas.
