The South African Weather Service (SAWS) recently held a media conference to discuss the latest El Nino forecast and its implications for the 2026/27 season. Experts from SAWS, the University of Pretoria, the National Disaster Management Centre, the Agricultural Research Council, and the Foundation for Professional Development were in attendance. The conference was held on September 18, 2026, and was led by SAWS.
According to Professor Willem Landman of the University of Pretoria, South Africa is already experiencing an El Nino event, which is exceptional in both its timing and magnitude. The signal emerged unusually early, and forecasts indicate that the event may reach a magnitude unprecedented in the instrumental record, peaking during late 2026 or early 2027. This has significant implications for weather-sensitive sectors.
Dr. Christien Engelbrecht of SAWS presented the seasonal outlook, which shows an increase in the probabilities for below-normal rainfall towards mid-summer and very high probabilities for above-normal temperatures across all three-month periods. The public and weather-sensitive sectors are encouraged to follow the monthly seasonal updates as well as daily forecasts, advisories, and warnings.
Mr. Rudzani Malala of the SAWS Disaster Risk Reduction department emphasized that El Nino in itself is not a disaster, but that people should plan for it responsibly and proactively. He stressed that individual weather events should be assessed using daily forecasts and impact-based warnings rather than attributed to El Nino alone. This approach can help mitigate the effects of the event.
The National Disaster Management Centre’s Ms. Phumeza Tyali highlighted the importance of preparedness before impacts materialize, with whole-of-government and whole-of-society coordination. She added that the media plays a critical role in the early-warning system by explaining forecast uncertainty, avoiding equating El Nino automatically with drought, and translating technical forecasts into clear language.
The SAWS has urged the public to be proactive and take necessary precautions to mitigate the effects of the strong El Nino event. The service will provide regular updates and warnings to help weather-sensitive sectors plan and prepare. This includes the agricultural sector, which may be significantly impacted by the drier conditions and above-normal temperatures.
The South African Weather Service has assured the public that it will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as necessary. The service has also encouraged the public to follow its social media channels and website for the latest information on the El Nino event and other weather-related updates.
Key points
- A strong El Nino event is expected to peak during late 2026 or early 2027.
- The event is exceptional in both its timing and magnitude.
- The public is encouraged to follow monthly seasonal updates and daily forecasts.
