South Africa's deteriorating relationship with the US is not expected to significantly impact its trade with the world's largest economy. Despite strained relations, the country exported R260 billion worth of goods to the US last year, accounting for 3.3% of its gross domestic product. This figure represents a significant increase from R238 billion in 2024. According to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, over 89% of South African exports to the US entered under ordinary Most Favoured Nation terms.
The US remains one of South Africa's largest trading partners, although the relationship is heavily weighted towards South African exports. In 2025, total goods and services trade between the countries reached $28.8 billion. Donald MacKay, founder and CEO of XA Global Trade Advisors, emphasized that the political fight between the two countries should be separated from their trade relationship. He noted that US President Donald Trump's actions have disrupted trade but have not been devastating for South Africa.
MacKay highlighted that gold and platinum now make up more than half of South Africa's exports to the US. He expressed confidence that Trump is unlikely to cut off imports of these essential commodities. The US announced visa restrictions against certain South Africans last week, adding to already strained relations between Washington and Pretoria. US ambassador Brent Bozell described the restrictions as "only the first step in a series of escalatory measures."
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been a focal point of concern about deteriorating relations between the countries. Introduced in 2000, AGOA gives eligible African countries preferential access to the US market for qualifying products and has been extended to the end of 2028. However, MacKay noted that the value of the programme to South Africa's overall trade relationship is relatively small.
MacKay estimated that the total cash value of AGOA to South Africa is around R2 billion a year, which is a relatively small amount compared to the country's total trade with the US. He added that AGOA has made a difference for the agricultural sector, which is a significant beneficiary of the programme. However, the benefits of AGOA are largely offset by US tariffs on products such as vehicles, steel, and aluminium.
The latest political dispute comes on top of existing trade tensions between the countries. MacKay cautioned against assuming that the latest political escalation would necessarily spill over into trade. He emphasized the need for caution and not giving "this fire oxygen," which he believes Trump wants.
Despite the challenges, MacKay remains optimistic about the resilience of South Africa-US trade relations. He noted that the US is an important market for South African agricultural products, and the country is unlikely to lose this market. With gold and platinum driving South Africa's exports, the country's trade relationship with the US is expected to weather the current political storm.
Key points
- South Africa's exports to the US are driven primarily by gold and platinum sales.
- The African Growth and Opportunity Act has a relatively small impact on South Africa's overall trade relationship with the US.
- Despite political tensions, South Africa's trade relationship with the US is expected to remain resilient.
