South Africa's exit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) has sparked concerns about the country's access to the US market. However, according to Wandile Sihlobo, South Africa's Agriculture and Land Envoy, the country's graduation from Agoa does not mean a complete ban on US market access. Instead, it will face slightly higher tariffs. Sihlobo notes that discussions about South Africa's eligibility for Agoa have been ongoing, with some arguing that the country, as an upper-middle-income nation, should have graduated to a full bilateral trade agreement with the US.
The implications of South Africa's exit from Agoa are often misunderstood, with some framing it as a complete ban from the US market. However, this is not the case. When South Africa transitions out of Agoa, it will face an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of around 3.4% on top of the existing tariffs imposed by the current US Administration. Currently, some South African products enter the US market at 12.5% tariffs, which will rise to 15.9% without Agoa. This increase will slightly reduce the competitiveness of some South African products in the US market.
Despite the tariff increase, Sihlobo argues that the impact may not be as catastrophic as previously faced by South Africa. In 2025, the South African farming sector faced tariffs of around 30%, yet agricultural exports to the US were strong, totaling $504-million. This represents a 3% decline from the previous year. During the higher "Liberation Day Tariffs," some South African agricultural exporters took advantage of a 90-day pause in the second quarter of 2025 and exported more volume than usual.
However, after this pause, exports cooled in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. South Africa's agricultural exports to the US fell 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, to $144-million. In the last quarter, South Africa's agricultural exports to the US fell sharply, by 39% to $81-million. Despite this, the overall annual exports were encouraging, and the US remains an important market for South African agriculture, accounting for about 4% of its agricultural exports.
In 2026, South Africa's agricultural exports to the US have been strong, with a 56% increase from the first quarter to the second quarter, to $123-million. The decline in US tariffs, from 30% to 12.5%, among other factors, has contributed to this increase. Main exports to the US include citrus, berries, grapes, raisins, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts. Sihlobo emphasizes that South Africa's graduation from Agoa must be viewed in context and may not necessarily mean a catastrophe.
Nevertheless, some industries may feel the impact of the increased tariffs, which could slightly reduce their competitiveness. Sihlobo stresses the need to manage sentiment and narrative around this issue effectively. He also highlights the importance of diversifying South Africa's export markets, particularly to growing regions such as Asia and the Middle East. However, export diversification should not be seen as a replacement for existing markets, including the US, EU, UK, Africa, and others.
Sihlobo's views are informed by his role as South Africa's Agriculture and Land Envoy and chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. His new book, "Balance and Reason: A Growth Path for South Africa's Agriculture," will be available in stores from November 9, 2026. As South Africa navigates its new trade relationship with the US, it will be crucial to strike a balance between maintaining access to existing markets and exploring new opportunities for growth.
Key points
- South Africa's exit from Agoa will result in a 3.4% tariff increase on its exports to the US.
- The country's agricultural exports to the US were strong in 2025, totaling $504-million.
- The US remains an important market for South African agriculture, accounting for about 4% of its agricultural exports.
