A recent Climate Impact Lab report projects that South Africa may experience approximately 1,200 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. This forecast is linked to the intensification of this year's El Niño, a climate phenomenon that could become the strongest on record. The estimated range for these projections is plus or minus 90 deaths.
The Climate Impact Lab estimates that globally, 451,000 people could die from extreme heat during the first nine months of the El Niño, from June 2026 to February 2027. The report highlights that the impacts of El Niño will be concentrated largely in the Global South. It also warns of potential drought, wildfires, and flooding due to higher temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.
Across Africa's Sahel region, the report projects 66,800 additional heat deaths over the next six months. Nigeria is expected to account for about 31,400 deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,500, Niger with 10,000, and Chad with 7,900. South Africa's projected figure places it among the countries expected to experience additional heat-related mortality during the September-to-February period.
The report suggests that emergency response and resilience measures targeted at areas facing the greatest risks could help prevent tens of thousands of deaths. Recommended measures include early-warning systems, cooling centres, and protections for outdoor workers. The Climate Impact Lab's Adaptation Inventory is based on peer-reviewed research examining measures that have been shown to save lives.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concerns that the weather pattern could also bring favourable conditions for both cholera and disease-carrying insects, such as mosquitoes. This could lead to an uptick in illnesses like malaria, chikungunya, and dengue fever. WHO's Unit Head for Risk Reduction, Humanitarian Operations and Climate Change, Teresa Zakaria, warned that the most severe impacts will be experienced when climate shocks intersect with weak health systems.
The EU's climate monitor reported that August was the hottest single month ever recorded globally, with ocean temperatures also reaching unprecedented highs. Western Europe experienced its warmest summer. In response, the Department of Agriculture urged crop farmers to implement climate-smart agriculture to conserve soil moisture and minimise soil erosion.
The UN's World Meteorological Organization warned that the current El Niño is forecast to be the strongest since comparable records began four decades ago. The climate phenomenon's effects on the world's climate are expected to continue well into 2027.
Key points
- 1,200 additional heat deaths are projected in South Africa between September 2026 and February 2027.
- 451,000 people globally could die from extreme heat during the first nine months of the El Niño.
- The El Niño could become the strongest on record, with severe impacts expected in the Global South.
