Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi Movement Leads in Nairobi, UDA Tops Nationally

A recent survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) has revealed significant shifts in Kenya's political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election. The Linda Mwananchi Movement, closely associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, has emerged as the most popular political outfit in Nairobi, capturing 26 percent support in the capital. This puts the movement ahead of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 11 percent and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at nine percent.

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA), led by President William Ruto, has regained its position as Kenya's most popular political party nationwide, with national backing climbing from 17 percent in June to 25 percent in November. The Linda Mwananchi Movement secured second place nationally at 17 percent, overtaking ODM which has seen a significant drop in support from 20 percent in June to just 10 percent. Other parties, including DCP, Wiper, and Jubilee, have smaller shares of national support.

Regional strongholds play a crucial role in shaping the political map, with each major outfit drawing strength from distinct geographic bases. The Linda Mwananchi Movement draws its strongest backing in Western Kenya at 40 percent, followed by Nairobi (26 percent), Nyanza (18 percent), and the Coast (16 percent). In contrast, UDA commands massive leads in Northern Kenya at 60 percent and the Central Rift at 56 percent, while ODM retains its stronghold in Nyanza with 33 percent support.

Senator Edwin Sifuna's rising profile translates directly into the 2027 presidential race, with Sifuna topping presidential preferences in Nairobi with 39 percent support. President Ruto ranks a distant second in the capital at 13 percent, edging out Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 11 percent and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i at 10 percent. This indicates a significant challenge to established political leaders in the city.

The survey also tracked public sentiment toward the broad-based government arrangement between UDA and ODM, with 43 percent of Kenyans nationally opposing the power-sharing deal, compared to 32 percent who support it. Skepticism runs even deeper in Nairobi, where opposition to the pact surges to 57 percent, leaving only 13 percent in favor. This suggests significant public resistance to the alliance.

The TIFA survey was conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 2,036 adults across all 47 counties, providing a nationally representative sample. The findings highlight the dynamic nature of political support in Kenya, with significant variations across regions and a clear preference for alternative political movements.

The largest bloc in Nairobi remains unaligned, with 31 percent of respondents in the capital saying they do not identify with any political party. This indicates a significant opportunity for political movements to attract new supporters ahead of the 2027 General Election. Key points include:

Key points

• Linda Mwananchi Movement leads in Nairobi with 26% support.
• UDA tops national support with 25%.
• 43% of Kenyans oppose UDA-ODM power-sharing deal.