A recent survey conducted by Politrack Research Team has revealed that Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna is the top choice among opposition presidential aspirants in Kenya. The survey, which took place between September 15 and 25, 2026, shows that Sifuna has garnered 19.6 per cent of the votes. This makes him the highest-rated opposition aspirant in the poll. President William Ruto, however, maintains a significant lead in the overall presidential preference race with 45.1 per cent of the votes.
The survey also shows that Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka comes third with 10.3 per cent of the votes, while 8.4 per cent of respondents are undecided. Other notable aspirants include Fred Matiang’i with 7.2 per cent and Rigathi Gachagua with 6.0 per cent. The survey targeted potential voters across the country and collected data using a text-based technology platform. A total of 20,419 respondents participated in the survey, which reported a 95 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.
The Politrack survey provides an insight into voter preferences ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Sifuna’s 19.6 per cent support is nearly double Kalonzo’s 10.3 per cent. The survey also reveals that other candidates, including Martha Karua and David Maraga, polled below one per cent. James Orengo and Jimmy Wanjigi also received low ratings, with 0.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively.
President Ruto’s 45.1 per cent places him 25.5 percentage points ahead of Sifuna in the poll. The significant lead enjoyed by Ruto may be attributed to his incumbency and influence as the current President of Kenya. However, the survey also shows a substantial bloc of voters yet to settle on a candidate, with 8.4 per cent undecided.
The party numbers provide another notable feature of the survey. Ruto’s UDA leads party preference at 32.0 per cent, followed by the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 11.7 per cent and ODM at 10.6 per cent. Jubilee records 6.9 per cent, Wiper 5.6 per cent, Kenya Kwanza 3.5 per cent and Azimio 3.2 per cent.
The Politrack figures represent a snapshot of voter preference during the survey period rather than an election result or forecast. With the 2027 election still ahead, the survey provides valuable insights into the current state of voter preferences in Kenya. The survey’s findings may influence the strategies of various presidential aspirants and their parties.
Key stakeholders will likely study the survey’s findings to understand voter trends and preferences. The 2027 presidential election is expected to be highly competitive, with various aspirants vying for the top spot. The Politrack survey is one of the early indicators of voter preferences, and its findings may have implications for the election’s outcome.
Key points
- Sifuna leads opposition presidential aspirants with 19.6 per cent of the votes.
- President Ruto maintains a significant lead with 45.1 per cent of the votes.
- A substantial bloc of voters remains undecided, with 8.4 per cent.
