Sifuna and Ruto Tie in Kenya Presidential Poll as Matiang'i Sees Sharp Drop

A new opinion poll released by Trends Insight for Africa on Thursday shows a significant shift in the preferences of Kenyans for the 2027 presidential election. President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are now tied, each with 31 percent support. This development comes as a surprise, especially for Sifuna, who had no measurable support in August 2022, September 2025, and November 2025.

According to the poll, Sifuna's support has been on a sharp upward trajectory, rising from 10 percent in May 2026, 15 percent in June, and finally to 31 percent in November. On the other hand, Ruto's support has been more gradual, registering 16 percent in September 2025 and 19 percent in November that year. He then reached 24 percent in May and June 2026 before rising to 31 percent in the latest poll.

The poll also reveals a dramatic decline in support for former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, who previously led the preference rankings. His support fell from 32 percent in August 2022 to 21 percent in September 2025, 18 percent in November 2025, and 14 percent in both May and June 2026. It dropped again to five percent in November. Former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has also lost ground since reaching a high of 25 percent in November 2025.

The regional results show Ruto leading in Central Rift with 59 percent, Coast with 40 percent, Northern with 62 percent, and Nyanza with 35 percent. In contrast, Sifuna is ahead in Mt Kenya with 32 percent, Nairobi with 39 percent, South Rift with 31 percent, and Western with 55 percent. Kalonzo leads in Lower Eastern with 55 percent.

The largest shares of undecided respondents came from Mt Kenya, at 21 percent, and Nairobi, at 17 percent. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's support has weakened since reaching nine percent in May 2026. He received two percent in August 2022, six percent in September 2025, three percent in November 2025, seven percent in June 2026, and four percent in November.

The Trends Insight for Africa poll interviewed 2,036 people in person at their homes between October 26 and November 5, drawing a nationally representative sample from nine regions. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points, though that margin is higher for smaller sub-samples.

Sifuna's rise to a joint lead stands out because he drew no measurable support in earlier survey periods. His latest rating puts him ahead of established presidential hopefuls Matiang'i, Kalonzo, and Gachagua. The poll offers an early snapshot of a fluid presidential race, with Ruto and Sifuna sharing the lead while other contenders attract considerably less support nationwide.

Key points

• President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are tied at 31% support for the 2027 presidential election.
• Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i saw a sharp decline in support, from 32% in August 2022 to 5% in November.
• The poll was conducted by Trends Insight for Africa, interviewing 2,036 people between October 26 and November 5.