Seven Ethiopian armed and opposition groups have announced a new alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establishing a transitional administration. The groups, including the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), formed the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival on September 20. This coalition brings together forces from several regions of Ethiopia, including groups that previously fought on opposing sides during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.
The alliance consists of seven groups: the Amhara Fano National Movement, the TPLF, the OLA, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement. According to statements from the groups, discussions aimed at bringing them together had been taking place for more than a year. Fano leader Zemene Kassie is set to chair the new alliance, according to TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa.
The coalition's immediate objective is to coordinate its political and organisational capabilities to remove the Prosperity Party-led federal government and establish an inclusive transitional administration under a transitional charter. The groups have also called for an end to Ethiopia's armed conflicts and a broader national political process. This announcement is notable because some of the groups involved have previously been adversaries, including Fano and the TPLF, who fought on opposing sides during the Tigray war.
The announcement comes amid renewed tensions in northern Ethiopia, with fighting and military mobilisation around Tigray raising concerns about a possible return to a wider conflict. The TPLF declared in July that the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended the Tigray war, was effectively dead. The formation of the alliance marks a new attempt by several armed opposition movements to coordinate their activities at a time of renewed political and security tensions across the country.
The practical strength of the new alliance remains uncertain, with analysts questioning whether the coalition could sustain a prolonged confrontation with the federal government. Bringing together groups operating in different regions and with different political objectives does not necessarily mean they have established a single military command. The groups also have unresolved political and territorial differences, particularly involving the contested Western Tigray area.
The Ethiopian federal government had not publicly responded to the announcement in the initial reporting. However, the formation of the alliance has significant implications for the country's stability and security. The groups involved have a history of armed conflict with the federal government, and their coordination could potentially escalate tensions and lead to further violence.
The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival is a significant development in the country's ongoing political and security crisis. The alliance's success will depend on its ability to coordinate its members' efforts and resolve their differences. The international community is closely watching the situation, with concerns about the potential for further conflict and instability in the region.
Key points
- The alliance aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establish a transitional administration.
- The coalition brings together groups that previously fought on opposing sides during the 2020-2022 Tigray war.
- The practical strength of the new alliance remains uncertain, with analysts questioning its ability to sustain a prolonged confrontation with the federal government.
