Seven Ethiopian armed groups have announced a new alliance aimed at overthrowing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival was unveiled in September 2026. This development comes as Abiy grapples with armed conflict and deepening political and ethnic divisions in the country. There is ongoing fighting in the Amhara region between federal forces and local insurgents.
Rising tensions in Tigray have also sparked fears of renewed war. These are only two flashpoints in a sea of political divisions that war, elections, and national dialogue have so far failed to heal. The national dialogue process, launched in 2022, aims to address the grievances that have led to decades of political instability and violence. However, some political actors, including armed groups like the Oromo Liberation Army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, have been left out of the process.
The new alliance of seven groups, including these armed groups, has been formed to challenge Abiy's government. In a recent paper, Dereje Melese Liyew examined why the dialogue process is facing a crisis. He explains its weaknesses and what this means for Ethiopia's efforts to resolve political conflicts without resorting to violence. The paper highlights the need for a more inclusive dialogue process that addresses the concerns of all stakeholders.
Abiy's arrival in power in 2018 brought hopes of more political freedom. Political prisoners were released, and restrictions on the media were eased. However, a stable democratic settlement did not follow. The interventions were not Ethiopia's first attempt at democratic governance. A culture of solving political differences with conflict, the absence of strong political institutions, and ethnic polarization have led to disagreements about the Ethiopian state.
Terefe Gebreyesus has examined what Ethiopia needs to get democracy right. In his view, four things are missing: sustained economic growth, political elites committed to democratic rules, independent political institutions, and international pressure. The absence of these factors has hindered the country's progress toward a stable democracy. Ethiopia's past attempts at democratic governance have been marred by conflict and authoritarianism.
One reason building a common political future has been difficult is that Ethiopians do not share a common interpretation of their past. Political movements have repeatedly drawn on competing ideas about the state, ethnicity, marginalization, and national identity. These histories shape present-day arguments over how Ethiopia should be organized. Mohammed Girma argues that Ethiopia needs a new rallying point instead of recycling its painful past.
The country's leaders have sought symbols capable of creating a shared sense of national purpose. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been one of the most prominent. However, it is unclear whether a development project can create political unity. Namhla Thando Matshanda notes that the dam offers a rare potential rallying point in a country where competing visions of national identity have repeatedly fueled political tensions.
Key points
- The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival was formed by seven armed groups to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
- The national dialogue process, launched in 2022, aims to address the grievances that have led to decades of political instability and violence in Ethiopia.
- Ethiopia's progress toward a stable democracy has been hindered by the absence of sustained economic growth, political elites committed to democratic rules, independent political institutions, and international pressure.
