Seven armed groups in Ethiopia have announced an alliance aimed at removing the current government and facilitating a transitional administration. The groups, which include the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara nationalist Fano militias, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), have been collaborating for over a year. According to TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa, their objective is to establish a transitional government. The alliance was announced on September 21, 2026.
The alliance comprises seven groups, including the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul People's Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz People's Democratic Movement. Fano leader Zemene Kasse will chair the alliance. In a statement, Kasse described the ruling government in Addis Ababa as "dictatorial and genocidal," accusing it of pushing Ethiopia toward total disintegration. The government has not yet responded to the alliance's announcement.
The formation of the alliance is significant, as it brings together groups with regional divisions. Professor Yohannes Woldemariam of the University of Colorado noted that the groups' willingness to set aside their differences undermines the "divide and rule" strategy of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The alliance may pose a challenge to the government, which has been plagued by armed conflicts in its most populous regions, Oromia and Amhara.
However, doubts remain about the alliance's ability to overthrow the federal government. Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist, questioned the sustainability of a war against the government, which possesses numerous drones. While the alliance may create multiple fronts for the government to deal with, Tronvoll expressed concerns about the groups' different ideologies and their ability to govern effectively after a potential takeover.
Ethiopia has been experiencing armed conflicts in its regions, with federal forces fighting the OLA since 2018. The Fano militias took up arms against the government in April 2023 after being disarmed. The groups in the alliance have also clashed in the past, with Fano fighting alongside federal forces during the Tigray war. Territorial disputes, particularly over Western Tigray, remain a challenge for the alliance.
Amanuel Assefa expressed optimism about the alliance's success, stating that they have been talking for over a year. He also acknowledged that the groups will need to address their differences peacefully in the future. The African Union has been monitoring the situation, with both the government and the TPLF massing troops along the border of the northern state.
The international community is watching the developments in Ethiopia closely. While some experts see the alliance as a significant challenge to the government, others remain skeptical about its chances of success. The situation in Ethiopia remains volatile, with the alliance's announcement adding to the country's instability.
Key points
- The alliance aims to remove the current government and establish a transitional administration.
- The groups in the alliance have different ideologies and territorial disputes.
- The government's response to the alliance remains unclear.
