Ghana's efforts to accumulate gold and foreign currency reserves are coming with a significant price tag, according to S&P Global. The rating agency warns that the government's Ghana Accelerated National Reserves Accumulation Program (GANRAP) could cost between 0.8% and 2.6% of the country's annual Gross Domestic Product. This warning comes as the Bank of Ghana recorded an operating loss of $1.25 billion in 2025.
The Bank of Ghana's loss pushed its negative equity to 6.7% of GDP. The central bank's balance sheet has weakened despite growing reserves, which are intended to shore up confidence in the cedi and the wider economy. S&P attributes the deterioration to valuation losses on foreign assets, the cost of sterilising liquidity, and losses linked to programmes like GANRAP.
The government has initiated a phased capital restoration programme to rebuild the Bank of Ghana's balance sheet, with a timeline stretching to 2032. However, S&P notes that this recapitalisation is likely to be funded through the issuance of additional government debt. This prospect is sensitive, given Ghana's recent emergence from the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP).
Ghana's gold sector is driving the reserve accumulation strategy, with gold shipments rebounding after an August slowdown. However, S&P cautions that leaning heavily on one commodity carries risks. Gold accounted for more than 66% of Ghana's goods exports in 2025, exposing the economy to weather shocks and price swings.
S&P flags the risk that an El Niño-driven agricultural disruption or a fall in international gold prices could unsettle Ghana's progress in taming inflation. Inflation fell to 5% in August 2026, down from a peak of 54.1% in December 2022. However, prices have started creeping upward again, partly linked to the war in the Middle East pushing up international fuel prices.
For ordinary Ghanaians, S&P's warning suggests that some of the fiscal gains of the past few years could be eroded if the government has to keep issuing debt to fund GANRAP and the Bank of Ghana's recapitalisation. This matters directly for anyone holding government bonds, for banks whose balance sheets are tied to sovereign debt, and for taxpayers who ultimately underwrite the central bank's losses.
S&P also points to structural issues weighing on Ghana's creditworthiness, including weak institutional arrangements and elevated debt servicing costs. The agency characterises Ghana's fiscal reform agenda as still in an early stage, one that has not yet been tested through a complete economic cycle. The rating agency is withholding full confidence in the durability of Ghana's turnaround until it sees how the country's finances hold up through both good times and bad.
Key points
- S&P warns Ghana's gold reserve push could cost 0.8-2.6% of GDP annually.
- The Bank of Ghana recorded an operating loss of $1.25 billion in 2025.
- Ghana's gold sector is driving the reserve accumulation strategy, but also poses risks due to its dominance in exports.
