The Russian government is preparing to lower its forecasts for natural gas production and exports for the next few years. According to a document cited by Reuters, the country's expected gas production in 2026 is now estimated to be 683.1 billion cubic meters, down from the previous forecast of 688.4 billion cubic meters. This new figure is still higher than the 662.7 billion cubic meters produced in 2025.
Russia's economy ministry has projected that the country's gas production will reach 696.1 billion cubic meters in 2027, 710.5 billion in 2028, and 740.1 billion in 2029. These forecasts are lower than the previous projections of 711.3, 731.9, and 750.4 billion cubic meters, respectively. The country is also revising its expectations for gas exports through pipelines, with estimates of 117.5 billion cubic meters in 2026 and 120.5 billion in 2027.
However, Russia's gas exports to markets outside the former Soviet Union are expected to continue declining. The country's exports to these markets are now estimated to be 77 billion cubic meters in 2026, down from previous forecasts. This decline is largely due to reduced demand from European markets, which have been a significant customer for Russian gas in the past. In 2025, Russia's gas exports to Europe plummeted by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters.
Russia is counting on liquefied natural gas (LNG) to make up for some of the decline in its pipeline gas exports. The country's LNG exports are expected to reach 35 million tons in 2026, up from 30.3 million tons in 2025. However, this figure is lower than the previous forecast of 40.3 million tons. Russia's LNG exports are expected to continue growing, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
The downward revision of Russia's gas production and export forecasts comes amid a sustained decline in the country's energy relations with Europe. The European Union is working to phase out its remaining Russian gas imports, reducing the prospects for a return to pre-war volumes. Before the conflict with Ukraine, Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe averaged around 180 billion cubic meters per year.
The revised forecasts will be used to prepare the Russian federal budget update through 2029. The energy sector remains crucial to Russia's public finances, with oil and gas revenues accounting for around a quarter of the country's federal budget. The revision of Russia's gas production and export forecasts is part of a broader reassessment of the country's energy assumptions.
Russia's challenge is to compensate for the loss of its European market by increasing sales to Asia and developing its LNG capabilities. However, the new forecasts suggest that this reorientation will be slower and less significant than previously anticipated. The country's energy sector is facing significant challenges, including the impact of sanctions and disruptions to energy infrastructure.
Key points
- Russia's gas production is expected to be 683.1 billion cubic meters in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 688.4 billion cubic meters.
- The country's gas exports to markets outside the former Soviet Union are expected to decline to 77 billion cubic meters in 2026.
- Russia's LNG exports are expected to reach 35 million tons in 2026, up from 30.3 million tons in 2025.
