Russia Plans to Massively Produce Dan-T Munitions, Ukraine on High Alert

Russia is planning to significantly ramp up production of the Dan-T munition, a reaction-powered device already used in the Ukraine war, according to reports published by RBC-Ukraine on September 21. Sources claim that up to 2,000 units will be produced by the end of 2026, with a potential target of 14,000 units in 2027. However, these volumes have not been officially confirmed by Moscow. The Dan-T munition is derived from the Dan-M, an aircraft initially used as a target for air defense exercises.

The Dan-T possesses a unique characteristic, having been adapted from its original purpose as a target drone to perform strike missions. According to Ukrainian aviation expert Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, Russia has modified the platform to enable it to carry out offensive operations. The increased production of Dan-T munitions could pose a significant threat to Ukraine's defense systems, particularly if used in large quantities in conjunction with Shahed drones and various types of missiles.

The potential threat posed by the Dan-T munitions lies in the sheer number of targets that Ukraine's air defense systems would have to engage simultaneously. This could overwhelm the systems, making it challenging for them to intercept all incoming threats. However, the feasibility of Russia achieving the reported production targets remains uncertain. Khrapchynskyi notes that the availability of engines could be a significant constraint on production.

The characteristics of the Dan-T munition have been publicly disclosed, providing insight into its capabilities. At the El Alamein airshow in Egypt in September, Rosoboronexport revealed a Dan-T with a maximum mass of 268 kg. According to data provided to Janes, the device can carry a military payload of 130 kg, reach speeds of 500 km/h, and travel up to 450 km. Khrapchynskyi estimates that the Dan-T's range could be approximately 500 km when launched from an aircraft like the Su-35, but only around 250 km when launched from the ground.

The Dan-T munition has already been used in combat against Ukraine. Following a Russian attack on September 23-24, the Ukrainian air force reported that it had intercepted a Banderol/Dan-T device, along with 219 drones and several missiles. Ukrainian authorities claimed that a total of 282 drones of various categories had been launched during the attack. The Dan-T technology has its roots in the 1990s, when the Dan-M was developed as a reactive target for military exercises.

Rostec, the Russian state-owned conglomerate, claims that the Dan-T has already conducted hundreds of successful launches against targets during the war. However, this assertion has not been independently verified. Rostec describes the Dan-T as an autonomous munition equipped with a jet engine, capable of traveling several hundred kilometers after launch. If the reported production targets are achieved, the primary impact would be the sheer number of devices that Russia could deploy simultaneously.

The increased production of Dan-T munitions has raised concerns about Ukraine's preparedness to counter the new threat. The Ukrainian military has already demonstrated its ability to intercept Dan-T devices, but a significant increase in their numbers could pose a substantial challenge. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing efforts to verify the production targets and assess the potential impact on the conflict.

Key points

• Russia plans to produce up to 14,000 Dan-T munitions in 2027.
• The Dan-T munition has already been used in combat against Ukraine.
• The production targets have not been officially confirmed by Moscow.