The third Russia–Africa Summit in Moscow is currently underway, with Russian President Vladimir Putin hosting delegations from 48 African countries, including 22 represented by heads of state. The summit aims to deepen cooperation in trade, agriculture, security, and other strategic sectors. However, the gathering is taking place amid a deepening crisis in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan are increasingly divided over key issues.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived in Moscow at a particularly volatile moment for the region. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara deteriorated to the point of a diplomatic rupture, while renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has heightened fears that the country’s internal conflict could draw in its neighbours. The diplomatic tensions were brought into sharp focus on October 4, when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi hosted Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud at a quadrilateral summit in New Alamein, Egypt.
The meeting took place as Ethiopia faced renewed fighting in Tigray and deteriorating relations with its neighbours. The four leaders called for respect for state sovereignty and territorial integrity, support for national institutions, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. Their joint declaration also stressed the importance of security in the Red Sea and freedom of navigation through the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It called for the peaceful resolution of Sudan’s conflict and reiterated concerns over unilateral measures affecting Nile waters.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have undergone a dramatic reversal since Abiy came to power in 2018. The two countries restored ties after decades of hostility, earning Abiy the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his role in ending the longstanding conflict. Eritrea subsequently fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the 2020–2022 war against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). However, Eritrea was excluded from the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the war, and disagreements over security in northern Ethiopia have deepened.
Ethiopia has also repeatedly raised the question of access to the Red Sea, including through Eritrea’s port of Assab. For Addis Ababa, which lost direct maritime access following Eritrea’s independence in 1993, securing reliable access to the sea is an economic and strategic priority. For Asmara, Ethiopia’s ambitions have raised concerns about sovereignty and the possibility of territorial pressure. The dispute escalated in October when Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Eritrea and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats.
The African Union has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to exercise restraint and pursue diplomatic solutions. The risk is that renewed fighting in Tigray could transform a bilateral confrontation into a wider regional crisis, particularly given the links between Ethiopia's internal security, its relations with Sudan and Eritrea, and competition over Red Sea access. Egypt’s rivalry with Ethiopia is rooted partly in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Addis Ababa regards as central to its economic development and electricity generation.
Sudan’s conflict adds another layer to the regional crisis. The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in April 2023 and has devastated communities, displaced millions, and disrupted the country's economy. Egypt has maintained close relations with Sudan’s army leadership and reiterated its support for Sudan’s unity, sovereignty, and national institutions. For Moscow, the dispute provides a reminder that African partnerships involve governments whose interests can be sharply opposed, even as they seek Russian investment, military cooperation, and diplomatic engagement.
Key points
- The Russia–Africa Summit has highlighted the deepening crisis in the Horn of Africa.
- The crisis is driven by divisions over the Nile, Red Sea access, territorial security, and Sudan's future.
- The African Union has urged restraint and diplomatic solutions to the crisis.
