Statistics Mauritius has released its National Accounts Estimates report for 2023-2026, revising the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices for 2023 to Rs 695.2 billion, up from the previously estimated Rs 637.0 billion. This represents a nominal increase of 9.1%, attributed to the adoption of 2023 as the new reference year, integration of the Census of Economic Activities results, and compliance with the 2025 National Accounting System.
The revised GDP estimates reveal a more accurate picture of Mauritius' economy, but also indicate a slowdown in economic activity. After a 4.5% expansion in 2023, 4.2% in 2024, and 3.5% in 2025, the growth rate is expected to decline to 3% in 2026. Despite this, the absolute value of the GDP is projected to exceed Rs 873.1 billion at market prices, increasing the GDP per capita to Rs 703,970, up from Rs 651,510 in 2025.
The services sector, particularly financial services, remains the primary driver of growth. The banking and insurance sector is expected to contribute 0.5 percentage points to the growth in gross value added (GVA) in 2026, driven by a 4.7% sectoral expansion. Other sectors, such as wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and accommodation and food services, are also expected to contribute to growth, with projected increases of 3.0%, 4.8%, and a 0.2 percentage point contribution, respectively.
The tourism industry is expected to play a significant role, with an estimated 1,470,000 tourist arrivals in 2026, up from 1,436,250 in 2025. Traditional sectors, however, show mixed trends. Agriculture is projected to grow by 4.2%, driven by a 5.5% increase in non-sugar production and a sugarcane harvest of 225,000 tonnes. In contrast, the manufacturing sector is expected to stagnate, with a 1.5% growth rate, due to a 2% decline in export-oriented enterprises and a 2.5% decline in the textile sector.
The construction sector is expected to experience a modest 0.9% growth, following a 2.1% decline in 2025, driven by large public infrastructure projects and hotel renovations. However, investment levels are a concern, with a 1.1% decline in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) projected for 2026, due to simultaneous declines in private and public sector investments.
The national savings rate is expected to increase to 17.4% of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI), driven by a reduction in the trade deficit to 3.3% of GDP, resulting from a 2.1% decline in imports. The private sector continues to finance 83.1% of the country's fixed capital.
Key sectors and indicators point to a mixed economic outlook for Mauritius. While financial services and tourism are driving growth, traditional sectors like manufacturing and construction face challenges. The government's focus on large infrastructure projects and private sector investment is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the country's economic trajectory.
Key points
- Mauritius' revised GDP estimates show a 3% growth rate projected for 2026.
- The services sector, particularly financial services, remains the primary driver of growth.
- The national savings rate is expected to increase to 17.4% of GNDI, driven by a reduction in the trade deficit.
