Four weeks before the November 3 US midterm elections, Republicans are trailing Democrats by 9.6 points on the generic ballot in analyst Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model. This represents a slight increase in the Democratic lead, with Democrats leading by 9.1 points in a previous article. The midterm elections will see all 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators up for election.
The current polling trend is a significant shift from the 2024 elections, where Republicans won the House by 220–215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. To gain control of the Senate, Democrats need at least a four-seat gain, considering Vice President JD Vance’s potential tie-breaking vote. Additionally, owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point margin in the generic ballot to have a good chance of winning the House majority.
President Donald Trump’s net approval has recovered from a low of -23.5 to -22.5, according to Silver’s aggregate of US national polls. Currently, 59.9% disapprove of his performance, and 37.5% approve. Trump’s net approval on four key issues is as follows: -12.7 on immigration, -28.1 on trade, -32.8 on the economy, and -48.5 on inflation.
The ongoing Iran war has significant implications for the midterm elections. Currently, 60.0% of Americans are opposed to the war, while 32.1% support it, for a net support of -27.9. This is the worst net support since the war began. The economic data also plays a crucial role, with Americans currently paying an average of US$4.36 a gallon for regular petrol, down from US$4.48 a gallon previously.
In Silver’s midterm election forecast model, Democrats have a 51.3–41.6 lead over Republicans, giving them a 74% chance to win the Senate and a 93% chance to win the House. The model suggests that Democrats are favourites to win with a 6–7 point margin in the generic ballot. In the House, Democrats are favourites if they win by 3–4 points.
Democrats lead Republicans by one to five points in Senate contests for five states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024: Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas. This is a significant factor in their favour to gain control of the Senate. The two key items that could go wrong for Democrats are a markedly improved economy by November for most Americans and a systematic error in which Republicans overperform the polls.
The economic data and stock market trends also provide insight into the possible outcomes. In the last four trading sessions, the benchmark US S&P stock market index has surged 2.2% to a new record high. It’s up 12.6% from its peak in the week before the Iran war began in late February and up 18.6% from its worst point in the Iran war in late March.
Key points
- Democrats lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot in analyst Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model.
- President Donald Trump’s net approval has recovered from a low of -23.5 to -22.5.
- Democrats have a 74% chance to win the Senate and a 93% chance to win the House, according to Silver’s midterm election forecast model.
