As South Africa prepares for local government polls, experts are predicting a possible post-election coalition between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA). Independent election analyst Michael Atkins stated that public opinion polls show a clear possibility of the ANC going below 30% in Johannesburg. This could lead to a hung council, making a coalition necessary. Atkins emphasized the importance of building a culture of respect across party divides, prioritizing voters' needs over short-term interests.
According to Professor Sethulego Matebesi of the University of Free State, polls indicate that the DA may perform well in Johannesburg, but an outright majority is uncertain in Cape Town. The Patriotic Alliance is expected to garner significant electoral support, potentially decreasing the DA's support. Matebesi stressed that a high turnout matters more than any campaign issue. He also noted that a post-election coalition environment would be a real test for political parties and voters, particularly in light of shifting voter behavior.
In Cape Town, the DA's mayoral candidate, Helen Zille, has ruled out a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and MK Party, making the ANC a potential partner. However, Zille's relationship with ActionSA leader Mashaba is strained, which could impact a potential coalition. According to projections, the DA and ANC combined could form a stable coalition, but it would be politically costly for both parties. An ANC-led alliance with smaller parties is also possible but may be difficult to maintain.
Crime levels in Cape Town's Cape Flats and traditional black townships have put the DA on the back foot. The party's plan to build a nine-kilometre concrete barrier along the N2 highway has sparked controversy. Matebesi noted that 45.3% of Cape Town residents blame the national government for gangsterism, while 25.3% blame the DA. The acting police minister has stated that such walls cannot replace policing, providing a neutral point against the DA's crime strategy.
Dr. Oscar van Heerden, a research associate at the University of Johannesburg, strongly opposes the Cape Town wall, describing it as "racially-motivated." He claimed that the DA prioritizes affluent suburbs over poor black townships, maintaining the apartheid spatial morphology. Van Heerden also questioned the DA's clean governance record, stating that they failed to turn cities around despite being in power since 2016.
In contrast, Zille has announced the DA's key priorities for Johannesburg, including fixing finances, declaring war on corruption, and restoring law and order. She highlighted the DA's track record in governing, citing examples of successful service delivery in Cape Town and other metros. Zille emphasized the DA's ability to create jobs, with Cape Town adding 120,000 more jobs than other metros combined.
The ANC has pledged to turn around municipal service delivery, with key targets including investing 8% of municipal asset values into maintenance and renewal. The party aims to have 50% or more municipalities achieve clean or unqualified audits. As the election approaches, voters will be watching closely to see which party can deliver on its promises and form a stable coalition to govern effectively.
Key points
- A post-election ANC-DA coalition is possible due to predicted low ANC vote share in Johannesburg.
- High crime levels in Cape Town have put the DA on the back foot, with controversy surrounding their crime strategy.
- The DA and ANC have differing priorities and governance styles, which could impact coalition negotiations.
