The United States is scheduled to withdraw its forces from the last of its bases in Iraq by Wednesday, marking the end of a military presence that has lasted over two decades. This move has raised questions about the future of security and political balances in Iraq and the potential expansion of Iranian-backed militias. The withdrawal comes as the US is engaged in a war with Iran, adding regional dimensions to the situation.
The agreement to end the mission of the international coalition in Iraq was made in 2024 during the administration of President Joe Biden, while the Trump administration is implementing the final phase of the withdrawal. Iranian officials have welcomed the withdrawal, viewing it as a step towards their goal of removing US forces from the Middle East.
Iraqi security experts believe that the US departure may give Iran greater space to enhance its influence in Iraq, particularly given the extensive political and security influence of Iranian-backed militias. These militias are expected to seek additional gains in the security and political decision-making process following the withdrawal.
The withdrawal has raised concerns about the ability of Iraqi institutions to fill the potential security gap left by the departure of US forces. While the principle of restoring Iraqi sovereignty has widespread support, there is disagreement over the timing of the withdrawal and the readiness of Iraqi security forces.
There are also concerns that the Islamic State may exploit any gaps that emerge after the end of the military presence of the coalition. Although the organization has lost the territories it controlled, it still maintains sleeper cells and networks capable of carrying out sporadic attacks.
The US presence in Iraq dates back to the 2003 invasion, which aimed to overthrow Saddam Hussein. The US military then continued its presence in the country during the following years, marked by confrontations with armed groups. The US withdrew in 2011 but returned less than three years later as part of the international coalition fighting against the Islamic State.
The future of Iraq's relations with the US and Iran remains uncertain, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict between Washington and Tehran. The Iraqi government has stated that it is working to control the influence of armed groups and maintain security, but the expansion of Iranian-backed militias and the continued threat of the Islamic State may complicate the post-withdrawal phase.
Key points
- The US withdrawal from Iraq may give Iran greater influence in the country.
- The withdrawal has raised concerns about the security situation in Iraq and the potential for the Islamic State to exploit any gaps.
- The future of Iraq's relations with the US and Iran remains uncertain.
