Maritime law expert and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Dr. Olisa Agbakoba, has suggested that petrol price in Nigeria could be sold at N400 per litre. He argued that the government can apply a similar policy used in some major crude producer countries. Agbakoba made this remark during the 2026 Energy conference organised by the National Association of Energy Correspondents of Nigeria (NAEC) in Lagos. The conference had the theme, “Access To Assets: Empowering Players & Driving Growth”.
Agbakoba advocated for a petrol price cut as Nigeria attains self-sufficiency in petroleum products refining. He explained that some major oil-producing nations apply a price differential in the sale of crude to domestic refiners. This policy helps offset rising prices of gasoline and reduces pressure on the cost of living. Agbakoba's comments come as the government proposes a measure to cap petrol prices at about N1,350 per litre.
The government's proposed measure asks refiners and fuel importers to absorb temporary increases and recoup losses once costs ease, according to Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele. The measure became necessary after fuel costs surged to record highs, driven by rising global oil prices amid Middle East tensions. Oyedele stated that the government also plans a 30-day fuel discount programme, selling petrol at cost and prioritising public transport to ease pressure from soaring pump prices.
Officials are considering forward crude sales to local refiners to lock in feedstock prices and reduce exposure to swings in global oil markets. Oyedele mentioned that the government could impose a windfall tax on energy companies found to be profiteering at consumers' expense. The proceeds from the tax would be earmarked for transport subsidies and fuel vouchers for low-income urban workers. Rising fuel prices have revived fresh cost-of-living pressure on President Bola Tinubu's government ahead of elections.
Agbakoba provided further analysis, stating that the concept of subsidy removal as announced by President Bola Tinubu was misunderstood. According to him, the President understood the monumental fraud in the subsidy system and how it was benefiting those behind the scheme. Agbakoba explained that in Saudi Arabia, there is a concept called price differential, which ought to apply in Nigeria to manage the price mechanism.
Agbakoba further interpreted petroleum refining economics, stating that several products like automotive gas oil (AGO), kerosine, and aviation fuel could be derived from locally processed crude. Refiners could offset production costs and drastically bring down prices of petrol, which is just a single product among them. He recalled that during the subsidy regime, fraudulent practices occurred when 'Mother Vessels' bringing petrol anchored in Nigerian waters.
The government's proposed petrol price cap and Agbakoba's suggestion have sparked a fresh debate on the country's fuel pricing policy. As the government seeks to ease pressure on the cost of living, citizens are waiting to see the impact of these proposals on the pump prices of petrol. The implementation of these policies will be crucial in determining the future of Nigeria's fuel market.
Key points
- Dr. Olisa Agbakoba suggests a petrol price cut to N400/litre.
- The government proposes a petrol price cap of N1,350 per litre.
- Agbakoba cites policies in major crude producer countries as a model for Nigeria.
