South Africa's fuel prices are expected to increase significantly in October due to rising tensions in the Middle East. According to the Central Energy Fund, petrol price increases could range from R3.21 for 95 Unleaded and R3.01 for 93 Unleaded. Diesel costs are projected to rise by between R2.75 for 500ppm and R3.15 for 50ppm. These predicted hikes will see all fuel types breaking new price records.
The latest projections indicate that 95 Unleaded petrol is expected to reach around R29.26 at the coast and R30.13 in Gauteng, with 93 Unleaded rising to around R29.93. The wholesale price of 500ppm diesel looks set to reach about R30.98 for those at the beach and R31.86 for inland residents. These projections are significantly higher than they were just two weeks back, when petrol was predicted to rise by around R2.40 and diesel by between R2.04 and R2.40.
The increases come in the wake of significant price increases in September, when both grades of petrol rose by R1.34 a litre and diesel increased by between R2.94 and R3.15. The Slate Levy, which compensates oil companies for fluctuations in the preceding month, could add further pressure to fuel prices in October, particularly given the volatility seen in markets during the preceding month.
Surging oil prices have created significant under-recoveries for both petrol and diesel, with Brent crude having touched a four-month high of $108 per barrel this month. This was due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and more specifically, fresh attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure by Iran-based fighters.
Oil markets have been swinging sharply on every twist in the US-Iran standoff, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key pressure point. Brent crude initially jumped by more than $4 a barrel after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal that would have paved the way for a seven-day ceasefire and the reopening of the strategic waterway.
Prices later pared some of those gains as Qatar-mediated talks offered a glimmer of hope for a deal, but prices remained volatile this week, surging to around $106-$107 a barrel on Tuesday before dipping below the $100 mark later in the week. This as traders weigh signs of recovering Middle Eastern crude exports against continued uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict and stalled peace efforts.
Saudi Arabia’s resumption of tanker loadings from Yanbu and the restoration of its East-West Pipeline have eased some supply concerns, while hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough have provided further pressure. The situation remains uncertain, and fuel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the coming weeks.
Key points
- Petrol and diesel prices are expected to surge above R30 in October due to rising tensions in the Middle East.
- The Central Energy Fund projects petrol price increases of between R3.21 for 95 Unleaded and R3.01 for 93 Unleaded.
- Brent crude has touched a four-month high of $108 per barrel this month due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
