The 2027 Oyo State governorship election is expected to be markedly different from previous contests, with Governor Seyi Makinde facing a succession challenge that has eluded administrations in the state since 1999. Makinde is backing former Commissioner for Finance, Abimbola "Bimbo" Adekanmbi, as the Allied Peoples Movement's (APM) governorship candidate. This move tests whether Makinde can transfer his political structure and goodwill to a successor while pursuing a national political ambition.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is seeking to regain the state after eight years out of power, with Senator Sharafadeen Alli as its governorship candidate. The party has begun a reconciliation drive following its primary, with Alli calling on those who contested the primary to regard themselves as stakeholders rather than opponents. However, the real test is whether influential interests that competed for the ticket will deploy their structures behind Alli.
At the centre of the contest are three questions: how much of Makinde's political capital can be transferred to Adekanmbi; whether APC can turn reconciliation into a functioning campaign structure; and whether alternative parties can convert visibility into votes across the state's 33 local government areas. The APC possesses a national governing platform, federal visibility, and an established presence in Oyo, but these advantages will not automatically translate into a governorship campaign if the party's various tendencies fail to work together.
Makinde's decision to use APM as the vehicle for his succession project is an unusual political development in Oyo. APM adopted Adekanmbi as its consensus governorship candidate in May, with Adekanmbi positioning himself as a continuity candidate, promising to build on the Makinde administration's achievements. He has rejected suggestions that he would be a political stooge of the outgoing governor, insisting that his loyalty would be to the people of the state if elected.
The PDP's situation is another complication, with Makinde having won two governorship elections under the party. However, the political structure associated with his succession is now operating through APM, leaving the PDP to define its relevance after the departure of the state's most electorally successful figure in recent years. A strong PDP showing in legislative contests could preserve its relevance even if it does not dominate the governorship race.
The political legacy and traditional influence of Oba Rashidi Ladoja, the Olubadan of Ibadanland, also play a significant role in Oyo politics. As a former governor and senator, Ladoja heads the traditional institution in Ibadan, the state's largest political and population centre. His political history and relationships with politicians across generations make him a key factor in the election.
Ultimately, the 2027 Oyo State governorship election will depend on various factors, including the ability of Makinde to transfer his political capital to Adekanmbi, the success of APC's reconciliation efforts, and the impact of emerging opposition forces. The election will test the strength of various political parties and their candidates, with the outcome likely to shape the state's future.
Key points
- Governor Seyi Makinde's succession plan is a crucial factor in the 2027 Oyo State governorship election.
- The All Progressives Congress (APC) is seeking to regain the state after eight years out of power.
- The political legacy and traditional influence of Oba Rashidi Ladoja, the Olubadan of Ibadanland, play a significant role in Oyo politics.
