A survey conducted by Yiaga Africa has revealed that a mere 34 per cent of Nigerians are confident that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will conduct credible elections. This represents a decline from 45 per cent in two previous surveys. The findings are part of Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0), which interviewed 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in September 2026.
Despite the low confidence in INEC, Nigerians have expressed readiness to participate in the 2027 general elections. According to the survey, 84 per cent of respondents said they are “likely” or “very likely” to vote, up from 77 per cent and 73 per cent in the previous surveys. However, the proportion of those “very likely” to vote has decreased from 52 per cent to 47 per cent. The survey also found that 41 per cent of respondents are very certain of their choice.
Insecurity emerged as a significant barrier to voting, with 61 per cent of respondents citing fear of violence as a potential deterrent. This concern is more pronounced in the North-East, where 78 per cent of respondents expressed fear of violence. On the other hand, 83 per cent of respondents stated that improved security would make them more likely to vote. The survey also found that trust in INEC is fragile, with 39 per cent of respondents expressing a lack of confidence in the commission.
The survey revealed that citizens trust technology more than institutions, with 49 per cent trusting BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission. Awareness of electoral reforms has increased from 24 per cent to 62 per cent since December 2025. The survey also found that performance will be a central factor in voter choice in 2027, with 54 per cent of respondents disapproving of the President’s performance.
The economy and jobs are dominant policy priorities, with 71 per cent of respondents rating the economy as poor or very poor. A desire for change in leadership (49%) is the leading motivation to vote, while the economy and jobs (38%) and security (36%) are the dominant policy priorities. These findings suggest that government performance and material conditions will be central to voting choices in 2027.
The Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro) has stressed the need to ensure that at least 50 per cent of Nigeria’s registered voters participate in the 2027 general elections. The group warned that a turnout substantially below 50 per cent would raise serious questions about the democratic credibility and legitimacy of the process.
The Yiaga Africa report, titled “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027,” drew on interviews conducted in September 2026 by telephone and face-to-face in rural communities. The report tracked changes since Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Surveys – NVIS 1.0 (December 2025) and NVIS 2.0 (March 2026).
Key points
- Only 34% of Nigerians trust INEC to conduct credible elections.
- 84% of Nigerians are likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 general elections.
- Insecurity is a significant barrier to voting, with 61% of respondents citing fear of violence as a potential deterrent.
